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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Melania Trump | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jared Kushner | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Elon Musk | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Steve Witkoff | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tim Cook | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Marco Rubio | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Any of Trump’s sons | 100% | +17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Any CEO of a publicly-listed US company | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Scott Bessent | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 155d | Trustinghorse | Jared Kushner | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,587 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d |  Chicken14 | Steve Witkoff | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$8 −0.8% | — |
| 155d | Sin3000 | Melania Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,278 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | J.D. Vance | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,491 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | Melania Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,816 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  Thailand-Playboy | Mark Zuckerberg | SellNo>99¢ | $1,816 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 156d | Thailand-Playboy | J.D. Vance | SellNo>99¢ | $5,011 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 156d | Thailand-Playboy | Melania Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $11,410 | −$57 −0.5% | — |
| 156d | wubddh | J.D. Vance | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  pepess | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d | Thailand-Playboy | Melania Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d | Thailand-Playboy | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,320 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Melania Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,806 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  SakuraDevil | Melania Trump | SellNo>99¢ | $1,230 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 156d | PonyY | J.D. Vance | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Any of Trump’s sons | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,418 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 156d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Jared Kushner | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 156d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | Elon Musk | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,420 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 156d |  Hakei. | Elon Musk | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 156d | Trustinghorse | Scott Bessent | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,180 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 156d | Trustinghorse | Marco Rubio | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,522 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 156d | Cal800 | Steve Witkoff | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$44 +4.3% | 21 |
| 156d |  0xrc | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,894 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 157d | ps5 | Tim Cook | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,778 | +$22 +1.2% | 20 |
| 157d | 2024 | Mark Zuckerberg | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,238 | +$35 +1.1% | 20 |
| 157d | PonyY | Melania Trump | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 157d | thoodr2 fills | Tim Cook | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,591 | +$108 +3.0% | 20 |
| 157d | thoodr | J.D. Vance | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,210 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 158d | Hud1nis | Marco Rubio | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,847 | +$57 +3.1% | 20 |
| 158d | MarvelousManou | Melania Trump | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,504 | +$65 +4.3% | 20 |
| 158d |  Mine-Carrying-Dolphin | Melania Trump | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | +$126 +6.1% | 20 |
| 158d |  WarriorPooh | Marco Rubio | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | +$91 +6.8% | 20 |
| 158d | thoodr2 fills | Elon Musk | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,523 | +$115 +2.5% | 20 |
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any portion of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present at any meeting or event which is part of this summit and for which officials from both the government of the United States and the government of China are present. The summit will be considered to have ended once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings or events which start after this time will be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for J.D. Vance means the market gives it about 0%.