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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 86% | −1 pts | −6 pts | 86¢ · 87¢ (2¢) | $22.1 | in 76d |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 7% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $157 | in 76d |
| Ilia Topuria | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Max Holloway | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Charles Oliveira | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Paddy Pimblett | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Dan Hooker | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Mateusz Gamrot | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Benoît Saint Denis | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Rafael Fiziev | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Renato Moicano | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Mauricio Ruffy | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71d | zhyfacai | Ilia Topuria | BuyNo94¢ → 99¢ | $1,267 | +$69 +5.5% | 4 |
| 130d | Vibrant-TechnologistNew account | Paddy Pimblett | SellNo>99¢ | $50,351 | −$101 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | Vibrant-TechnologistNew account | Paddy Pimblett | BuyNo>99¢ | $51,027 | +$77 +0.2% | 4 |
| 130d | ketnOeteTiger16 fills | Paddy Pimblett | SellNo>99¢ | $60,561 | −$114 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | ketnOeteTiger16 fills | Paddy Pimblett | BuyNo>99¢ | $60,584 | +$91 +0.2% | 4 |
| 130d | Known-RosemaryNew account | Paddy Pimblett | SellNo>99¢ | $49,033 | −$99 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | Known-RosemaryNew account | Paddy Pimblett | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,092 | +$74 +0.2% | 4 |
| 130d | SeenArtkHawk14 fills | Paddy Pimblett | SellNo>99¢ | $47,972 | −$91 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | SeenArtkHawk13 fills | Paddy Pimblett | BuyNo>99¢ | $48,747 | +$73 +0.2% | 4 |
| 130d | keenri7lOwC13 fills | Paddy Pimblett | SellNo>99¢ | $46,951 | −$90 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | keenri7lOwC13 fills | Paddy Pimblett | BuyNo>99¢ | $48,507 | +$73 +0.2% | 4 |
| 142d | 0x6525…6219 | Max Holloway | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $4,905 | −$35 −0.7% | — |
| 142d | 0x6525…62192 fills | Max Holloway | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $4,910 | +$30 +0.6% | 4 |
| 149d | CalmV8ikAULion2 fills | Benoît Saint Denis | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $22,391 | −$147 −0.7% | — |
| 149d | CalmV8ikAULion2 fills | Benoît Saint Denis | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $22,391 | +$147 +0.7% | 4 |
elmcap26,288 shares
aliaspopeye1,963 shares
usurper551,214 shares
Robbb1,106 shares
PhilHawesLover837 shares
DrNee592 shares
IGBGMN399 shares
BobbyBakedBeans1,558 shares
macrosteaks1,094 shares
Rex416559 sharesThis market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 86¢ for Justin Gaethje means the market gives it about 86%.