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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +76 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 711d |  AgricultureSecretary | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris>99¢ | $14,874 | +$15 +0.1% | 10 |
| 711d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris>99¢ | $10,081 | −$20 −0.2% | — |
| 711d | Retired-Davis | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris99¢ → 100¢ | $2,884 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 711d |  JJo | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris98¢ → 100¢ | $8,416 | +$146 +1.7% | 10 |
| 711d |  Axios | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris93¢ → 100¢ | $3,718 | +$280 +7.5% | 12 |
| 711d | DonaldinhoTrumpito6 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris52¢ → 100¢ | $6,658 | +$6,042 +91% | 18 |
| 711d |  YoungGriff2 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris40¢ → 100¢ | $4,400 | −$6,600 −150% | — |
| 711d |  Erasmus. | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump60¢ → 0¢ | $4,200 | −$4,200 −100% | 18 |
| 711d | lronmexico | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris50¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | −$1,130 −100% | — |
| 711d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump85¢ → 0¢ | $6,511 | −$6,511 −100% | 10 |
| 712d |  studmuffin69695 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump83¢ → 0¢ | $7,582 | +$7,582 +100% | — |
| 712d | JJo2 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump85¢ → 0¢ | $5,132 | −$5,132 −100% | 12 |
| 712d | P1kaso | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump85¢ → 0¢ | $2,550 | −$2,550 −100% | 13 |
| 712d | P1kaso | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump75¢ → 0¢ | $3,750 | +$3,750 +100% | — |
| 713d | Retired-Davis | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris34¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | +$4,698 +191% | 18 |
| 713d | Sombie | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump60¢ → 0¢ | $1,800 | +$1,800 +100% | — |
| 714d | studmuffin6969 | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump86¢ → 0¢ | $1,118 | −$1,118 −100% | 11 |
| 716d | traderboy1212120 | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris10¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$10,536 +900% | 13 |
| 717d | kingfisher2 fills | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump92¢ → 0¢ | $11,020 | +$11,020 +100% | — |
| 718d | kingfisher | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump88¢ → 0¢ | $10,584 | −$10,584 −100% | 10 |
| 721d |  RememberAmalek | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump79¢ → 0¢ | $1,699 | +$1,699 +100% | — |
| 725d | PrinceHal | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellTrump72¢ → 0¢ | $1,440 | +$1,440 +100% | — |
| 726d | PrinceHal | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump69¢ → 0¢ | $1,380 | −$1,380 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | Wghjgff | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,575 | −$1,575 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | Wghjgff | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris37¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | −$1,953 −170% | — |
| 727d | Egfhhgj | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,008 | −$1,008 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | Qtrhgf | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris35¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$2,340 −186% | — |
| 727d | Shkhj | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,071 | −$1,071 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | Tyjhgf | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,197 | −$1,197 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | Qtrhgf | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,764 | −$1,764 −100% | 10 |
| 730d |  NJYT | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris48¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | −$1,155 −108% | — |
| 730d |  KUYT | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,155 | −$1,155 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | KUYT | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris48¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | −$1,109 −108% | — |
| 730d | NJYT | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,109 | −$1,109 −100% | 10 |
| 730d |  MUYTTR | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | −$1,043 −100% | 10 |
| 730d |  MOUYsity | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,048 | −$1,048 −100% | 10 |
| 730d |  MOUTY124 | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | −$1,039 −100% | 10 |
| 730d |  OUYTTSA | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyTrump52¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | −$1,039 −100% | 10 |
| 732d | Hlopa | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris53¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | −$940 −89% | — |
| 732d | Hlopa | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris56¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$880 +79% | 10 |
| 733d |  Wloczega | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | SellHarris63¢ → 100¢ | $1,572 | −$928 −59% | — |
| 733d | Wloczega | Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? | BuyHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $3,912 | +$2,088 +53% | 10 |
This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.