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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $103 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196d | somerisk | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 98¢ | $11,239 | −$1,092 −9.7% | — |
| 196d |  LaPulgaLeo | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 98¢ | $2,295 | −$107 −4.7% | — |
| 197d | pd2 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $2,804 | +$79 +2.8% | 3 |
| 246d | LaPulgaLeo | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,761 | +$19 +1.1% | 2 |
| 280d |  XieGuangKun | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,320 | −$44 −3.3% | — |
| 289d | somerisk5 fills | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $12,804 | +$565 +4.4% | 3 |
| 298d | shadowrunner | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $1,281 | +$63 +5.0% | 3 |
Lord.Krulos276 sharesOn December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 2%.