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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $740 | 0% | −7 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $735 | 100% | +49 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $730 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $715 | 0% | −4 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $710 | 0% | −3 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $755 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $725 | 100% | +42 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $720 | 100% | +14 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $750 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $745 | 0% | −2 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $705 | 0% | −2 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $700 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $695 | 0% | 0 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $690 | 0% | 0 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161d |  olegs | ↑ $740 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,044 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d | olegs | ↓ $710 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,272 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d | olegs | ↓ $715 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,462 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d | cryptothan | ↑ $750 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,921 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d | cryptothan | ↑ $755 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,722 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 161d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | ↑ $745 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,391 | +$35 +1.5% | 4 |
| 161d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $750 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,855 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 162d | elonfans | ↓ $705 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,629 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 162d | cryptothan | ↑ $745 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,321 | +$20 +1.5% | 5 |
| 162d | jjjjjsda | ↑ $740 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,224 | −$316 −26% | — |
| 163d |  CoinTrick2 fills | ↑ $735 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,092 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 163d | cryptothan | ↑ $735 | SellYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | −$331 −23% | — |
| 163d | cryptothan2 fills | ↑ $735 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,037 | +$1,013 +33% | 8 |
| 163d | orderfill | ↓ $710 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,067 | +$39 +1.9% | 4 |
| 164d | twerk4hv | ↑ $730 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,390 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | cryptothan | ↑ $730 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,207 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 164d | twerk4hv | ↑ $730 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$15 +1.1% | 4 |
| 164d |  sirrothko | ↑ $730 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | +$1,165 +115% | 9 |
| 164d | cryptothan | ↓ $715 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | −$526 −39% | — |
| 164d | cryptothan | ↑ $730 | BuyYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,464 | +$3,470 +237% | 10 |
| 164d | Private-Pantologist | ↑ $725 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,711 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 165d | Lopsided-Stitcher | ↑ $725 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$732 +72% | 6 |
| 165d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↑ $755 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,084 | +$61 +1.0% | 4 |
| 166d | shcc | ↓ $720 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,957 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 166d |  OraculumNobius | ↓ $720 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 166d | CoinTrick | ↓ $720 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of May 4 2026?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for ↑ $740 means the market gives it about 0%.