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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $499 | in 76d |
| December 31, 2027 | 45% | −1 pts | −25 pts | 9¢ · 81¢ (72¢) | — | in 441d |
| June 30, 2027 | 30% | +9 pts | −2 pts | 9¢ · 50¢ (41¢) | — | in 256d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d | BABELCONSTEL13 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo90¢ → 98¢ | $112,058 | −$9,590 −8.6% | — |
| 64d |  Pump | December 31, 2026 | SellYes4¢ → 2¢ | $1,927 | +$922 +48% | — |
| 143d | BABELCONSTEL42 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $271,746 | +$10,666 +3.9% | 24 |
| 194d |  Nibiru2 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes6¢ → 2¢ | $1,889 | +$1,281 +68% | — |
| 245d | Silent-Resist | December 31, 2026 | SellYes4¢ → 2¢ | $1,041 | +$494 +47% | — |
| 277d | tradetard | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes18¢ → 2¢ | $3,210 | −$2,871 −89% | 47 |
| 282d | obiwansatoshi | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes18¢ → 2¢ | $2,750 | −$2,464 −90% | 46 |
Nooserac51,721 shares
Optimus-2,923 shares
Gaujmalietis535 shares
Judea-Pearl100 sharesIf the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 2¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 2%.