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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138d |  MEPP | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $11,015 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | messixyz | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyYes<1¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 139d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 139d |  MrNoItAll3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $46,757 | −$61 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | okcoolstorybro5 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $34,466 | −$35 −0.1% | — |
| 139d | yogapinnacle | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 139d |  Anjun | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $53,071 | −$53 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | Shimmering-Age3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $18,183 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | SILF2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $29,970 | −$30 −0.1% | — |
| 140d | warlasfutpro | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,015 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 141d |  0x34a9...d74cfd2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 141d |  Noooooooop | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $11,988 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | xanxus1 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,928 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | keribit | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 141d | jwp99994 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $150,798 | −$254 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | mousty2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,999 | −$22 −0.6% | — |
| 141d | mousty2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,003 | +$18 +0.5% | 4 |
| 141d | Abdoulay | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 141d | BISTURI | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,998 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 141d | third-eye-olld | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,490 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 141d |  thegamblor697 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $50,599 | −$160 −0.3% | — |
| 141d | thegamblor697 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,650 | +$109 +0.2% | 4 |
| 141d | SAPolitcsSeer | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,984 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 141d | agagyu6 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,534 | −$181 −0.8% | — |
| 142d | 0xzipper2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,984 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 142d | shibagege9 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $154,107 | −$368 −0.2% | — |
| 142d | .asahi | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,495 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 142d |  d1k21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,992 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 142d | berathon | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,314 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 142d | b4k9xj2wh | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $99,800 | +$200 +0.2% | 4 |
| 142d |  CAR-GangVersion | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $26,424 | −$53 −0.2% | — |
| 143d | JamesBonder0072 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,920 | +$80 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d |  ScottyNooo | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $22,889 | −$69 −0.3% | — |
| 143d | dwpoker | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $24,936 | −$64 −0.3% | — |
| 143d | Oblong-Crisis | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,020 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d | mrkinetiq | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d | ASDFGH43132 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,659 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 143d | Flancho2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $16,705 | −$48 −0.3% | — |
| 143d | dex52 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,980 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d | 0x60c1…4491 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,001 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 143d | 0x60c1…4491 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,002 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 143d | 0x6125…6cd3 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,005 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 143d | 0x6125…6cd3 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 143d |  dooby | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,994 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 144d |  archaic2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,774 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 144d | MoronKiler2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $245,821 | +$740 +0.3% | 4 |
| 144d | nmslgyp666 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 144d | gatou3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $97,937 | +$295 +0.3% | 4 |
| 144d | nedsta | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $11,016 | −$44 −0.4% | — |
| 144d | aff3 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $60,756 | −$244 −0.4% | — |
| 145d |  TylerTurden | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,356 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 145d | Jean-Claude322 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,070 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 145d | CAR-GangVersion4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $132,933 | +$400 +0.3% | 4 |
| 145d | Ragnir | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,679 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 145d | CoconutCrabCurry | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,574 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 145d | Quick-Trial | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,980 | −$20 −0.4% | — |
| 145d | Trump20283 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $82,444 | −$578 −0.7% | — |
| 145d | aaaaaag2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $25,461 | −$102 −0.4% | — |
| 145d |  takemymoney | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 4 |
| 145d | toomanycoins | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,954 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
KatieSprygada11,509 shares
UssTrippingHigh350 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.