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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 20 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 21 | 0% | −4 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 22 | 100% | +47 pts | +61 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 19 | 100% | +7 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 18 | 100% | +7 pts | — | 23¢ · 100¢ (77¢) | — | ended |
| August 17 | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55d |  yen4u | August 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 56d |  Bertapotamous | August 20 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,368 | +$211 +6.3% | 10 |
| 56d | yen4u | August 20 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,218 | −$1,218 −100% | 10 |
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 20 means the market gives it about 100%.
