Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +24 pts | +31 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 183d | Shgabor | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,342 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 183d | bearbees2 | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,174 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 184d | Tall-Suspension | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | −$22 −1.8% | — |
| 184d | notawinner99 | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,777 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 184d | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,455 | +$412 +7.6% | 20 | |
| 184d | Saltyballs | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$398 −40% | — |
| 184d | Shgabor | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$343 +34% | 20 |
| 184d | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$691 +46% | 20 | |
| 186d | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $2,782 | −$2,782 −100% | 20 | |
| 187d | denizz | Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,236 | −$1,236 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.