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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110d | QMG-CORE | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,466 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | 0x8931…a90c | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 134d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | +$33 +1.1% | 20 | |
| 139d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,224 | +$32 +1.4% | 20 | |
| 139d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$14 −1.3% | — | |
| 199d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$33 +2.7% | 20 | |
| 220d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$34 −3.2% | — | |
| 220d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,056 | +$282 +4.6% | 20 | |
| 226d | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,615 | +$537 +4.6% | 20 | |
| 230d | h038596027355 | Anthropic CEO arrested? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | +$77 +5.4% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.