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Polymarket · Tech & ScienceClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 100% | +54 pts | +62 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 25%+ | 100% | +10 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40%+ | 100% | +80 pts | +68 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 30%+ | 100% | +20 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126d |  The-Joker | 50%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,859 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 252d | MistahFox2 fills | 40%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,286 | +$43 +0.6% | 4 |
| 252d | Trustinghorse | 40%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,077 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 253d | MistahFox | 25%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,019 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 253d | The-Joker | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,570 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 253d |  bamesjond | 30%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 253d | bamesjond | 25%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,988 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 253d |  kl1v | 25%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,319 | +$35 +1.1% | 4 |
JuliusNakamoto2,978 shares
0xdc3E831cad1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 50%+ means the market gives it about 100%.