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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +17 pts | +26 pts | 99¢ · 99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 429d | rwo | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,153 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 429d |  TealV2 fills | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,388 | −$529 −7.2% | — |
| 429d |  MichaelStrategy | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$28 +2.0% | 4 |
| 429d | NeoWick | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,632 | +$156 +2.0% | 4 |
| 429d | wokerjoesleeper | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,012 | +$113 +3.7% | 4 |
| 429d |  ScottyNooo3 fills | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $24,703 | +$2,780 +11% | 4 |
| 429d |  RelaySucks3 fills | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $11,390 | +$530 +4.7% | 4 |
| 429d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,428 | +$378 +11% | 4 |
| 429d | qwjshi | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,917 | +$573 +15% | 4 |
| 429d |  Car | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$126 +8.1% | 4 |
| 429d |  MegaTheGabriell13 fills | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $40,638 | +$5,922 +15% | 4 |
| 429d | ScottyNooo | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $5,220 | −$780 −15% | — |
| 430d |  TarasShevchenko | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | SellNo17¢ → 0¢ | $1,256 | +$1,256 +100% | — |
| 434d | TarasShevchenko | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyNo25¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 7 |
| 546d | Vinivi | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,947 | −$182 −9.3% | — |
| 564d | Vinivi | Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$103 +7.5% | 4 |
WongKimArk22,596 shares
Anjun2,516 shares
ciro21,521 sharesRecently, there have been a spate of arson attacks on Teslas and Tesla facilities. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/video/investigation-underway-apparent-tesla-arson-attacks-119962366 This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one person is found guilty of arson involving a Tesla facility or property, or any vehicle owned or produced by Tesla, between March 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered a relevant case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered a the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.