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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Stanton | 100% | +7 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Kai Newkirk | 0% | −7 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87d | KiernanMeister | Greg Stanton | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,410 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 87d | SnowLover7 | Greg Stanton | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,192 | +$418 +6.8% | 10 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Greg Stanton means the market gives it about 100%.