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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 100% | +2 pts | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Decrease rates | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No change | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50+ bps increase | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302d |  tsys88888 | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $1,746 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  MiuMiuYan | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $5,883 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  Gemini456 | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $3,287 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | affafs124 | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  Doom.kai | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $2,256 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | nonkenny902 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $7,647 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | Passionate-Left | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $1,221 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | claudecoder346 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $18,989 | −$2,683 −14% | — |
| 302d |  huyaowen | No change | SellNo>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | longnhi9xx | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 302d |  Chims2 fills | No change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,160 | +$183 +2.0% | 10 |
| 302d |  qjrPM1 | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $1,627 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | cigarettes17 fills | No change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $36,617 | +$732 +2.0% | 10 |
| 302d |  praktor | 25 bps increase | SellYes>99¢ | $4,261 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | thrackle | 25 bps increase | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,033 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 302d | leewin | 25 bps increase | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,496 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d |  Ahpo | 25 bps increase | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,134 | +$7 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d | praktor | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,657 | +$21 +0.8% | 10 |
| 302d | anciente | No change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,989 | +$16 +0.8% | 10 |
| 302d | rated | No change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | +$8 +0.8% | 10 |
| 302d | hollyber4 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $48,227 | +$477 +1.0% | 10 |
| 302d | hollyber2 fills | No change | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,773 | +$78 +1.4% | 10 |
| 302d |  funnyday | 25 bps increase | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,263 | +$11 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d |  UwO4 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $54,969 | +$748 +1.4% | 10 |
| 302d | wokerjoesleeper10 fills | No change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $17,193 | +$382 +2.2% | 10 |
| 302d | wokerjoesleeper18 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,341 | +$58 +0.2% | 10 |
| 302d |  flow-trader-at-optiver12 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $27,225 | +$39 +0.1% | 10 |
| 302d | flow-trader-at-optiver5 fills | No change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,673 | +$236 +1.7% | 10 |
| 302d | cigarettes28 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,028 | +$97 +0.2% | 10 |
| 302d |  elmcap22 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $16,801 | +$382 +2.3% | 11 |
| 302d | bioo | No change | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,798 | +$201 +2.1% | 11 |
| 302d | AZwater2 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,159 | +$11 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d |  iloveueth | 25 bps increase | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,923 | +$36 +1.9% | 11 |
| 302d | OLOTH | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | +$30 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d |  yourQuantGuy2 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,571 | +$45 +1.7% | 11 |
| 302d | claudecoder3410 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $15,722 | +$1,226 +7.8% | 10 |
| 302d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $25,199 | +$251 +1.0% | 10 |
| 302d | Vilgefortz2 fills | Decrease rates | SellNo>99¢ | $7,724 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 302d | influenz.eth25 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,936 | +$100 +0.3% | 10 |
| 302d | influenz.eth13 fills | No change | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $22,304 | +$651 +2.9% | 10 |
| 302d | Bukaj08892 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$219 +2.2% | 10 |
| 302d | cigarettes4 fills | Decrease rates | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,087 | +$7 +0.1% | 10 |
| 302d | rated | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 302d |  JonaMar666 | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,087 | +$8 +0.2% | 10 |
| 302d |  Retore | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,997 | +$69 +1.4% | 10 |
| 302d |  krabich | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,562 | +$79 +1.4% | 10 |
| 303d | QMG-CORE | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 303d | Niudad3 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,178 | +$86 +2.0% | 10 |
| 303d | nonkenny906 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $10,180 | +$289 +2.8% | 10 |
| 303d | Passionate-Left | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,734 | +$25 +1.4% | 10 |
| 303d | snowmann3 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,875 | +$84 +1.4% | 10 |
| 303d | Chims | No change | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | −$23 −1.6% | — |
| 303d |  damnit6664 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $13,438 | −$538 −4.0% | — |
| 303d | xule | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,708 | +$23 +0.2% | 10 |
| 303d | 999097hb | 25 bps increase | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,966 | −$36 −1.8% | — |
| 303d | qjrPM1 | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | +$27 +1.5% | 10 |
| 303d |  Teatree | 25 bps increase | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,140 | −$59 −1.9% | — |
| 303d | sanhu03 | 25 bps increase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,584 | +$92 +1.2% | 10 |
| 303d |  rainkagax2 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,025 | −$121 −4.0% | — |
| 303d | rainkagax | No change | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,044 | −$25 −1.2% | — |
Hagmaxxerz18,289 shares
shb186018606,244 sharesThe Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for December is scheduled to be released on December 19, 2025 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref240731a.pdf). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's December 2025 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/state_2025/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 25 bps increase means the market gives it about 100%.