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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberals by 0-3% | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Conservatives by >12% | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives by 9-12% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives by 6-9% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives by 3-6% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Conservatives by 0-3% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals by 3-6% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals by 6-9% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals by 9-12% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liberals by 12% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 481d | VvVv4 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,800 | +$36 +0.2% | 10 |
| 481d | rwo3 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,161 | +$46 +0.4% | 10 |
| 481d | rwo | Conservatives by >12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,349 | +$10 +0.1% | 10 |
| 481d |  UwO | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,028 | +$40 +0.4% | 10 |
| 481d |  brodiaga | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes100¢ | $5,128 | +$26 +0.5% | 10 |
| 481d | 0x253d…3307 | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | +$8 +0.8% | 10 |
| 484d | AZwater2 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,553 | −$53 −0.7% | — |
| 485d | 033033033 | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $10,978 | −$22 −0.2% | — |
| 496d | JoseB144 | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,579 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 500d | scrapbook | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,455 | −$45 −1.0% | — |
| 501d | RandomJake2 fills | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $7,787 | −$29 −0.4% | — |
| 502d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 505d | noslajre2 fills | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $8,871 | −$32 −0.4% | — |
| 508d | rbczz3 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,728 | +$98 +0.6% | 10 |
| 514d | Snoorrason3 fills | Conservatives by >12% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,843 | +$57 +0.6% | 10 |
| 515d | RandomJake2 fills | Conservatives by >12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,202 | +$23 +0.1% | 10 |
| 516d | gunnar2422 fills | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $7,548 | −$32 −0.4% | — |
| 516d | CarlosFdez | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | −$40 −2.0% | — |
| 517d | rbczz | Conservatives by 9-12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,143 | +$25 +0.3% | 10 |
| 518d | DumbMoney1 | Liberals by 6-9% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,335 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 518d | AZwater | Conservatives by 3-6% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 518d | AZwater | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,471 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 519d | JOHNOO | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,257 | −$127 −2.0% | — |
| 519d | DelightfulDelights | Liberals by 3-6% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,024 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 520d | VvVv4 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $13,848 | −$152 −1.1% | — |
| 521d |  Astera | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,383 | −$195 −1.1% | — |
| 522d | hastings | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,457 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 522d | hastings | Conservatives by 9-12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,459 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 522d | RicardoMyst | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,447 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 522d | RicardoMyst | Conservatives by 9-12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,449 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 522d | oswalt | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,018 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 523d | oswalt | Conservatives by >12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 524d | almost-never | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $18,105 | −$205 −1.1% | — |
| 524d | endeez | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | −$25 −1.0% | — |
| 525d |  SwissMiss | Conservatives by 3-6% | SellNo>99¢ | $8,957 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 525d |  debased | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,752 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 525d | noslajre | Liberals by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 526d | noslajre | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,501 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 526d | HighlyCanAntlers | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,498 | −$158 −1.4% | — |
| 526d | HighlyCanAntlers | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,598 | +$62 +0.5% | 10 |
| 526d | 0330330332 fills | Conservatives by >12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,983 | +$17 +0.1% | 10 |
| 527d |  copefan | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$29 −1.5% | — |
| 529d | DeezzNutzz | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,114 | −$70 −0.9% | — |
| 529d |  ScamWick | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,258 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 529d | PavlosEpic | Conservatives by 6-9% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,688 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 530d | ScamWick | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes100¢ | $9,623 | +$48 +0.5% | 10 |
| 530d |  wiggamon112 fills | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $15,463 | −$26 −0.2% | — |
| 531d |  SirHarryOakes | Conservatives by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $7,206 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 531d | GaborAlde | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 531d |  beibeidabest | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,291 | +$51 +0.4% | 10 |
| 532d | Evo-690 | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | −$17 −1.6% | — |
| 532d | 0x65c65De373A10e5f319f72 | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,941 | +$12 +0.6% | 10 |
| 533d | mirand | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 533d |  GoldmanSachs | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 534d |  enderone | Conservatives by >12% | SellNo>99¢ | $7,592 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | Predictandbreathe | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,055 | −$25 −0.8% | — |
| 535d | Astera3 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,580 | +$58 +0.7% | 10 |
| 535d | AZwater2 fills | Liberals by 0-3% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,573 | +$68 +1.0% | 10 |
| 535d | Keparo | Liberals by 0-3% | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,912 | −$80 −4.2% | — |
| 535d | LBZone | Liberals by 9-12% | SellNo>99¢ | $3,964 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
TimeTraveler1,973 shares
Alla205691 shares
Cajetan4 sharesThe next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to according to the popular vote margin of victory. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the party that wins the most votes and the second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count published by the Government of Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If neither the Conservative or Liberal win the most votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Liberals by 0-3% means the market gives it about 100%.