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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-35 months | 100% | +96 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| No Prison Time | 0% | −48 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1-11 months | 0% | −21 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 12-23 months | 0% | −23 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 36-47 months | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 48-59 months | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60+ months | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 752d | Amon07 | No Prison Time | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,810 | −$40 −0.5% | — |
| 752d | 0x17 | No Prison Time | SellNo>99¢ | $1,976 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 752d | Barfly | 24-35 months | SellYes>99¢ | $1,449 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 752d | ssxeet | 24-35 months | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,050 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 752d |  0xBama | No Prison Time | SellNo>99¢ | $1,531 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 752d | kd87 | 24-35 months | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,094 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 752d |  CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente | No Prison Time | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,148 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 752d |  Car | No Prison Time | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,862 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 752d | bett-493 | No Prison Time | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | −$26 −0.9% | — |
| 752d |  carp | 12-23 months | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$11 +1.0% | 2 |
| 752d | carp | 48-59 months | BuyNo100¢ | $4,521 | +$23 +0.5% | 2 |
| 752d | carp | No Prison Time | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$37 +2.0% | 2 |
| 752d |  Kickstand7 | No Prison Time | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,718 | +$243 +14% | 2 |
| 752d |  Axios3 fills | 24-35 months | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $4,013 | +$1,714 +43% | 2 |
| 752d |  RewardsPeasant | 60+ months | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,926 | +$48 +0.8% | 2 |
| 753d | HelloWorld12 | No Prison Time | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,325 | −$1,325 −100% | 2 |
| 753d | PeterNh | No Prison Time | BuyNo45¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$1,270 +123% | 2 |
| 753d |  TCA | No Prison Time | BuyYes62¢ → 0¢ | $2,714 | −$2,714 −100% | 2 |
| 753d | TCA | No Prison Time | SellNo37¢ → 100¢ | $2,214 | −$3,822 −173% | — |
| 753d |  MakeEthereumGreatAgain | No Prison Time | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 2 |
| 753d | TCA | No Prison Time | BuyNo51¢ → 100¢ | $2,947 | +$2,786 +95% | 2 |
| 753d | disko | No Prison Time | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $1,060 | −$1,060 −100% | 2 |
| 753d |  WongKimArk | No Prison Time | SellNo46¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$1,184 −117% | — |
| 753d | MaxMeng2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes52¢ → 0¢ | $4,340 | −$4,340 −100% | 2 |
| 753d |  TwoEyes3 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $14,691 | +$15,074 +103% | 3 |
| 753d |  ImJustKen | 60+ months | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $24,472 | +$525 +2.1% | 2 |
| 753d |  JJo | No Prison Time | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $3,541 | −$3,541 −100% | 5 |
| 753d | 55BURGERS55FRIES55TACOS55PIES55COKES100 | No Prison Time | BuyYes53¢ → 0¢ | $2,383 | −$2,383 −100% | 5 |
| 753d |  SemyonMarmeladov2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $5,148 | −$5,148 −100% | 5 |
| 753d | 6986 | 12-23 months | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $4,367 | −$1,232 −28% | — |
| 753d |  palisade | No Prison Time | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 5 |
| 753d | sdfsdfds | 1-11 months | SellYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,170 | +$1,170 +100% | — |
| 753d | ImJustKen6 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes51¢ → 0¢ | $15,900 | −$15,900 −100% | 3 |
| 753d | ImJustKen | 36-47 months | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $13,396 | +$529 +4.0% | 2 |
| 753d | ImJustKen | 24-35 months | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $40,638 | −$40,638 −100% | 2 |
| 754d | abdendriel2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $4,668 | +$4,858 +104% | 4 |
| 754d | 6986 | 12-23 months | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $4,423 | +$1,176 +27% | 3 |
| 754d | 68796879 | 1-11 months | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,308 | +$1,011 +23% | 3 |
| 754d | abdendriel | No Prison Time | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,717 | +$1,717 +100% | — |
| 754d | abdendriel | No Prison Time | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,818 | −$1,818 −100% | 3 |
| 754d |  kendoll2 fills | No Prison Time | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 3 |
| 755d | Amon07 | No Prison Time | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$2,040 +104% | 3 |
| 755d | Ten-566 | 60+ months | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$44 +2.2% | 2 |
| 756d | randomname3948282 | 1-11 months | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,460 | +$540 +22% | 3 |
| 756d | polymarketbetter | No Prison Time | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,051 +105% | 3 |
| 756d |  Wickier | No Prison Time | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,937 | −$1,937 −100% | 3 |
| 756d | asfsadsad | 1-11 months | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $4,030 | −$1,007 −25% | — |
| 756d | asdfsadsd | 1-11 months | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $4,866 | −$1,294 −27% | — |
| 757d | asfsadsad | 1-11 months | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $4,130 | +$907 +22% | 2 |
| 757d | 7sad78sad | 1-11 months | BuyYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,109 | −$1,109 −100% | 3 |
| 761d | 2024AD | No Prison Time | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | −$609 −56% | — |
| 762d | JeremyJ | 60+ months | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | +$110 +7.5% | 2 |
This is a market on the length of prison time Caroline Ellison will receive following her legal proceedings.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 24-35 months means the market gives it about 100%.