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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $3.96 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d |  archaic | December 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,160 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 110d | Musk5 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,464 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d |  elmcap24 fills | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,674 | +$49 +0.2% | 20 |
| 135d | Baalim | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | −$18 −1.6% | — |
| 162d | Smoggy-Nose | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,020 | −$80 −4.0% | — |
| 181d | archaic | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | −$28 −2.8% | — |
| 236d | Sukasushi | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$116 +5.8% | 20 |
| 236d |  twe2nty | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$55 +4.8% | 20 |
| 248d | Smoggy-NoseNew account | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$101 +5.0% | 22 |
| 261d | fmkfgk | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,810 | −$14 −0.8% | — |
| 261d | fmkfgk | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,823 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d |  knrad | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,388 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 264d | Sukasushi2 fills | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,715 | +$34 +0.3% | 20 |
| 272d | cuponoodles | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,266 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 273d | Baalim | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$72 +5.1% | 20 |
| 334d | geremilio | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$185 +18% | 20 |
LornaPredicts242 sharesarchaic3,202 shares
Belgaron1,180 shares
Zaratustra606 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 4%.