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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +60 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −52 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 75d | patouossa | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 75d |  NotCope | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 75d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | <40 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,672 | +$525 +20% | 25 |
| 75d | karen2p | <40 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,255 | +$161 +7.1% | 22 |
| 75d | pupupuup | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | +$235 +13% | 24 |
| 75d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,596 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | The-Adept | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,281 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 75d | suifeng6682 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,105 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,834 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 75d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,063 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | pingfan666 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | weatherprod | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,235 | +$28 +0.2% | 20 |
| 75d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,470 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 75d |  Spotless-Godfather | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 75d | nbjui1 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 75d | nbjui1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,568 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 75d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,435 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 75d | suyizi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,805 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 75d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 75d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,767 | +$122 +1.2% | 20 |
| 75d |  stauffen | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,635 | −$21 −1.3% | — |
| 76d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,736 | +$37 +1.3% | 20 |
| 76d |  upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,070 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 76d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,628 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 76d |  tend9 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 76d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,545 | +$455 +4.8% | 21 |
| 76d |  KVBA7 | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,600 | +$277 +6.0% | 21 |
| 76d | stauffen | 90-114 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$207 +14% | 22 |
| 77d | IndipendentLens | <40 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | +$155 +14% | 22 |
| 78d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes43¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$1,520 +134% | 22 |
dz1ft32,469 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 1 12:00 PM ET to August 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.