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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +48 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −28 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,229 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 66d |  upont | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,565 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 66d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,422 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | Prexpect | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,462 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | patouossa | <40 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,716 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 66d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,318 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 66d | sazzaa | <40 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | −$16 −1.4% | — |
| 66d | ym-mzt1 | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,269 | +$53 +4.2% | 21 |
| 66d | d008 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,074 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 66d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,105 | +$126 +6.0% | 22 |
| 66d |  67BrainRot | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,986 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,210 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | <40 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,273 | +$501 +15% | 24 |
| 66d | nbjui12 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,077 | +$36 +0.7% | 20 |
| 66d | pingfan666 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,328 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,951 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$244 +15% | 23 |
| 66d | Marsache | <40 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | −$218 −21% | — |
| 66d | patouossa | <40 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$232 +15% | 24 |
| 66d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,465 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d |  Spotless-Godfather2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,234 | +$66 +2.0% | 21 |
| 66d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,565 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 66d | onekey02 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,294 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 66d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,037 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 66d | Repulsive-Member | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$48 +2.4% | 21 |
| 66d | upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,163 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 67d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,661 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 67d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | +$72 +4.2% | 21 |
| 67d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$21 +1.4% | 20 |
| 68d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,082 | −$1,082 −100% | 25 |
dz1ft7,671 shares
BigMackyG1,190 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.