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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +56 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −8 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −42 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −39 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −12 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42d | 0x1d94…80da | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,857 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 42d | Icannotwin | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,014 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 42d |  Prexpect | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,941 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  abellll | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,045 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,404 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,840 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 42d | beatyesterday3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,672 | +$35 +0.2% | 20 |
| 42d |  Bot4 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,613 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 42d |  upont | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,014 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 42d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,986 | +$43 +0.3% | 20 |
| 42d | ym-mzt1 | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,475 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 42d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,212 | +$25 +0.6% | 20 |
| 42d |  y111m11 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,097 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 43d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$34 +1.1% | 20 |
| 43d | startrader | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,214 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 43d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,300 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 43d | YuzuLemon2 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$298 +7.5% | 22 |
| 43d | startrader | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,872 | +$21 +1.1% | 20 |
| 43d | Jackybrown2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$133 +5.3% | 22 |
| 43d | barell | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,182 | +$55 +1.7% | 21 |
| 43d | upont | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,545 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 43d | Cryptozombie17800 | 220-239 | SellYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | −$1,137 −105% | — |
| 43d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,009 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 43d | Bankrupt-Loser | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,246 | +$38 +0.9% | 20 |
| 43d | BinaryBaron | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,689 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 43d | d008 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$24 +1.2% | 20 |
| 43d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 43d | beatyesterday | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,613 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 43d | 0xf14e…6173 | 240-259 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$82 +7.2% | 22 |
| 43d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,719 | +$39 +1.4% | 20 |
| 43d | OstapP | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,337 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 43d | dddtrips2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,971 | −$62 −2.1% | — |
| 43d | xiaojido202 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,113 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 43d | YUGAlove | 220-239 | SellNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,219 | +$1,219 +100% | — |
| 43d | beatyesterday | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,821 | +$58 +2.0% | 20 |
| 44d | logesh32 | 220-239 | SellNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,425 | +$1,425 +100% | — |
| 44d | 0xf14e…6173 | 180-199 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$106 +8.1% | 21 |
| 44d | Amir10001 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$67 +1.3% | 20 |
| 44d | ellio8989 | 180-199 | SellYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,122 | +$1,122 +100% | — |
| 44d | upont2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,651 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 44d |  leleko2k2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,423 | +$40 +1.6% | 20 |
| 44d | upont | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,650 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 44d | CakeBake | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,399 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 44d | CakeBake | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,495 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 44d | carboyant2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,329 | +$21 +0.3% | 20 |
| 44d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 240-259 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$140 +14% | 22 |
| 44d | beatyesterday | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,902 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 44d | upont3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,158 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 44d | ElonSimp | 160-179 | SellNo100¢ | $1,180 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 44d | Actual-Ladle | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,950 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 44d | LinabellAccountStolen | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 44d | ElonSimp | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,150 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 44d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,951 | −$24 −0.8% | — |
| 44d | dddtrips3 fills | 160-179 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,678 | −$960 −21% | — |
| 44d | dddtrips | 180-199 | SellYes45¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | +$1,039 +100% | — |
| 44d | dddtrips | 180-199 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,137 | −$1,137 −100% | 25 |
| 44d | leleko2k | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$41 +2.7% | 20 |
| 44d |  Boss72 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,462 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 44d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,970 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 44d |  stauffen | 220-239 | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,320 | −$1,320 −100% | 22 |
hochnaesigezicke200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 28 12:00 PM ET to September 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.