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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400-424 | 100% | +97 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <250 | 0% | −9 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250-274 | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275-299 | 0% | −34 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-324 | 0% | −23 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325-349 | 0% | −41 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350-374 | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375-399 | 0% | −16 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425-449 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 651d | ManoTs | 400-424 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,194 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 651d |  Prexpect | 400-424 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,511 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 651d | wokerjoesleeper | 400-424 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,268 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 651d |  Bang... | 425-449 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,586 | −$18 −0.1% | — |
| 651d | Bang... | 400-424 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,394 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 651d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,661 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,733 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,766 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d |  12402343 fills | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,730 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | leiger2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,444 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | AgricultureSecretary | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,883 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | Akust | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | STRI | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | cipherpilot2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,890 | +$51 +0.7% | 20 |
| 651d | astromage | 425-449 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,451 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 651d | 12402342 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,815 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 652d | Bang...2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,965 | +$114 +1.9% | 20 |
| 652d |  lranon | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,515 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 652d | astromage | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,342 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 652d | astromage2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $15,686 | +$250 +1.6% | 20 |
| 652d | astromage2 fills | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $18,803 | −$19 −0.1% | — |
| 652d |  Bot4 | 400-424 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,694 | +$17 +1.0% | 20 |
| 652d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec8 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $15,004 | +$2,664 +18% | 20 |
| 652d | AgricultureSecretary2 fills | 450+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,566 | +$108 +3.0% | 20 |
| 652d |  Faladian12 fills | 400-424 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $23,237 | −$2,953 −13% | — |
| 652d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | 450+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $51,139 | +$51 +0.1% | 20 |
| 652d | cipherpilot | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,291 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 652d | glarity | 450+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,437 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 652d |  AcctToBeRetired | 400-424 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$155 +3.1% | 20 |
| 652d | glarity | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,943 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 652d | SirDragon | 400-424 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,162 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 652d | leiger | 375-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,330 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 652d | nonkenny90 | 400-424 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,091 | +$131 +6.3% | 20 |
| 652d | Bang...2 fills | 425-449 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $18,748 | +$1,173 +6.3% | 20 |
| 652d | fengzi123 | 400-424 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$102 +8.9% | 20 |
| 652d | heywassup | 400-424 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,467 | −$376 −26% | — |
| 652d | Khan1407 | 450+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,566 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 652d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec | 425-449 | SellYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,802 | +$1,802 +100% | — |
| 652d |  RememberAmalek | 450+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,518 | +$39 +1.6% | 20 |
| 652d | Octopod2 fills | 400-424 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $4,921 | +$2,355 +48% | 20 |
| 652d |  KimJonEn | 425-449 | SellNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,909 | −$620 −32% | — |
| 652d |  imp | 425-449 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,093 | −$210 −19% | — |
| 652d | noovd | 400-424 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,509 | −$245 −16% | — |
| 652d | Bang...4 fills | 450+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,972 | +$337 +3.4% | 20 |
| 652d | Fail | 425-449 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | −$98 −9.2% | — |
| 652d | Lol1442 | 400-424 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,251 | +$107 +8.6% | 20 |
| 652d | tigercager | 450+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 652d |  Sabonky | 450+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$14 +1.2% | 20 |
| 652d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec | 450+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,034 | −$39 −1.9% | — |
| 652d |  KTT0428 | 400-424 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | −$252 −21% | — |
| 652d | 0x31e7018c67d7d323de8defd89b8d880427ef4ec4 fills | 400-424 | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $6,440 | −$2,551 −40% | — |
| 652d | ManoTs | 400-424 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,971 | +$226 +7.6% | 20 |
| 652d | TugaDutch | 400-424 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,968 | −$277 −14% | — |
| 652d | Guilv | 400-424 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$99 +8.3% | 20 |
| 652d | Fail | 425-449 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,311 | +$117 +8.9% | 20 |
| 652d | AgricultureSecretary | 375-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,557 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 652d | Fail2 fills | 375-399 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,315 | −$135 −5.8% | — |
| 652d | fengzi123 | 375-399 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$35 −3.1% | — |
| 652d | EscalateFund | 425-449 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,025 | +$136 +6.7% | 20 |
| 652d | Blazewalk2 | 400-424 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | −$517 −50% | — |
This is a market on predicting the number of tweets Elon Musk will make between December 27 and January 3.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 400-424 means the market gives it about 100%.