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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140+ | 100% | +55 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-49 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-69 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 70-79 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-99 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-109 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 110-119 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-129 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 130-139 | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 282d | lizhouaa | 130-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,661 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d |  ShadooowOnPM | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | whitewash | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,102 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | Poory | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,518 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  LelonBull | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,148 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  ggmggn | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,943 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  gapehorn | 140+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 282d | medvedd | 130-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,949 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | medvedd | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,141 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d |  awaylot2 fills | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,413 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 282d | Mammoth-Console | 140+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 282d |  HolyMoses7 | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $13,496 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | ggmggn | 140+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 282d | 0x265f…a448 | 140+ | SellYes>99¢ | $6,032 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 282d | FortisFortunaAdiuvat | 130-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,137 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 282d |  noreasapa | 130-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,050 | −$31 −1.0% | — |
| 282d | wokerjoesleeper | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,891 | +$60 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d |  KARMASUR | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,790 | +$210 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | HolyMoses7 | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,800 | +$200 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | burann | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | jamesab | 110-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,038 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 282d |  wrenrivera1204n | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,662 | +$27 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | noreasapa | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,549 | +$26 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | Wicked-Mayonnaise | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,432 | +$75 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | irbisSS | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,053 | +$61 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | EveryMoleIsMagic | 130-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d | SuperBet692 fills | 140+ | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $8,275 | −$719 −8.7% | — |
| 282d | tashk | 140+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 282d | Boune | 140+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 282d |  shiftedscene | 130-139 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,246 | −$46 −2.0% | — |
| 282d | cigarettes4 fills | 130-139 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,129 | +$995 +16% | 25 |
| 282d | KARMASUR | 140+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,742 | +$28 +1.0% | 20 |
| 282d |  Annica2 fills | 140+ | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,816 | +$189 +3.2% | 21 |
| 282d | venezuelain | 130-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,268 | +$32 +2.5% | 21 |
| 282d | FortisFortunaAdiuvat | 130-139 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,981 | +$213 +11% | 23 |
| 282d | 0x265f…a448 | 140+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,472 | +$528 +12% | 24 |
| 282d | safecalm | 140+ | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,379 | +$377 +16% | 25 |
| 282d | Ilovemusk | 140+ | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | −$1,519 −92% | — |
| 282d | Unselfish-Dress | 130-139 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$484 +48% | 30 |
| 282d | SuperBet69 | 140+ | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$713 +43% | 30 |
| 282d | 0x265f…a448 | 130-139 | SellYes88¢ → 0¢ | $1,013 | +$1,013 +100% | — |
| 282d | safecalm | 140+ | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,210 | −$1,210 −100% | 23 |
| 282d | Unique-Insurgence3 fills | 130-139 | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $5,081 | −$5,081 −100% | 30 |
| 282d |  stauffen | 140+ | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $5,161 | −$5,161 −100% | 25 |
| 283d | whitewash | 140+ | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$989 +89% | 30 |
| 283d | Hexagon555 | 130-139 | SellNo44¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | −$1,960 −127% | — |
| 283d |  ChunkyMonky | 130-139 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $2,800 | −$2,800 −100% | 30 |
| 283d | Unique-Insurgence2 fills | 110-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,311 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | Unique-Insurgence | 140+ | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,037 +104% | 33 |
| 283d | besmart2025 | 130-139 | BuyYes58¢ → 0¢ | $1,038 | −$1,038 −100% | 30 |
| 283d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 140+ | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $2,096 | −$2,096 −100% | 32 |
| 283d | Houdray | 130-139 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $2,185 | −$2,185 −100% | 32 |
| 283d | Annica | 140+ | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | −$225 −20% | — |
| 283d | AlphaAltfolo | 130-139 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$241 +22% | 26 |
| 283d | AlexPro | 140+ | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $2,019 | −$501 −25% | — |
| 283d | plsd23 | 120-129 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,162 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 283d | IO. | 140+ | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $5,740 | +$1,013 +18% | 25 |
| 283d |  yoududouying | 140+ | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,438 | +$310 +22% | 26 |
| 283d | AlexPro | 140+ | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$595 +30% | 28 |
| 283d | AlphaAltfolo | 120-129 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,099 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
PatrickBateman02,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from January 5 12:00 PM ET to January 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140+ means the market gives it about 100%.