Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −23 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96d | logesh32 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,042 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 96d | logesh32 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,618 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 96d | onekey022 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,256 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 96d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,790 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,129 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 96d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 96d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$21 +2.0% | 21 |
| 96d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,508 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | WCWS2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | tukki | <40 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,031 | +$54 +5.3% | 22 |
| 96d | logesh32 | 40-64 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$54 +5.3% | 22 |
| 96d | buputong | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d |  Espagan | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,322 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 96d | suifeng668 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,333 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 96d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,728 | +$30 +0.8% | 20 |
| 96d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$17 +1.3% | 20 |
| 97d | BinaryBaron | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,366 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 97d |  stauffen | 40-64 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$641 +32% | 24 |
| 97d |  triple-purple | <40 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$908 +61% | 25 |
| 97d | zzhzz | 40-64 | SellYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,420 | +$1,420 +100% | — |
| 97d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,281 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 97d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,843 | +$230 +8.1% | 21 |
| 97d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,523 | +$99 +2.2% | 20 |
| 97d | BinaryBaron | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,431 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 97d |  BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo48¢ → 100¢ | $2,825 | +$3,061 +108% | 25 |
| 97d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 21 |
| 98d | Espagan | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,205 | +$121 +5.5% | 21 |
| 98d | Ag500k | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$25 +1.9% | 20 |
ElonJail3,384 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 11 12:00 PM ET to July 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.