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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +22 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,530 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,506 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 89d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,695 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,674 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,664 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | qianyi2026 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 89d | Safff | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$94 +1.9% | 21 |
| 89d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$24 +2.3% | 21 |
| 89d | Repulsive-Hit | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$61 +3.1% | 21 |
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | <40 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,187 | +$326 +5.3% | 22 |
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,061 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | 40-64 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$72 +5.3% | 22 |
| 89d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,284 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | nbjui1 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,103 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 89d | buputong | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,461 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 89d | luca882 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,354 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 89d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$208 +14% | 23 |
| 89d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,429 | +$26 +1.1% | 20 |
| 90d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,540 | +$41 +0.2% | 20 |
| 90d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,666 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 90d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,097 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 90d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,896 | +$104 +0.9% | 20 |
dz1ft26,702 shares
BigMackyG3,080 shares
ElonJail2,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 18 12:00 PM ET to July 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.