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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +77 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −51 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84d | Mommy007 | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,300 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | sazzaa | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,353 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 84d |  jesterthegoose | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,972 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,102 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | tenorplum | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,696 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,436 | +$15 +0.6% | 20 |
| 84d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,330 | +$24 +1.8% | 21 |
| 84d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | +$32 +2.2% | 21 |
| 84d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,788 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | pingfan6662 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,276 | +$33 +0.4% | 20 |
| 84d | nbjui1 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,949 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 84d | carboyant2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,988 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 84d | Assured-Familiarity | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,883 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 84d | anon.1980.1233 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,569 | +$54 +1.0% | 20 |
| 84d |  oiisparahaa | 115-139 | SellYes73¢ → 0¢ | $1,156 | +$1,156 +100% | — |
| 84d | ghghgghghghghhghghh888 | 115-139 | SellYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,308 | +$1,308 +100% | — |
| 84d | startrader2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,423 | −$2,423 −100% | 26 |
| 84d | dafei888 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,166 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | suifeng668 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | ppobb1123 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,205 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | loveheng | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,033 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,527 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | BinaryBaron | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,636 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,775 | +$44 +1.6% | 20 |
| 84d | zzhzz | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,835 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 84d | Muzamilhussain | 90-114 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | −$815 −75% | — |
| 84d |  Panopticon007 | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,635 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 84d |  LinaBell🦊 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,290 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 84d |  Prexpect | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | +$92 +4.2% | 21 |
| 84d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$71 +5.6% | 21 |
| 84d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$125 +11% | 23 |
| 84d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,892 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | loveheng | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,033 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 84d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$380 +23% | 25 |
| 84d |  BigMackyG | 65-89 | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,022 | −$1,022 −100% | 28 |
| 84d | BigMackyG | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,246 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 84d | carboyant | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,451 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 84d | Cejgu | 65-89 | SellYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,188 | +$1,188 +100% | — |
| 84d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,166 | +$36 +3.1% | 21 |
| 85d | Optimal-Overclocking | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,588 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 85d | Cejgu | 65-89 | BuyYes56¢ → 0¢ | $1,229 | −$1,229 −100% | 25 |
| 85d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,341 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,315 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 85d | cornprovide | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,726 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 85d | onekey02 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,325 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 87d | BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo53¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$1,410 +87% | 22 |
| 87d | dddtrips | <40 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,561 | +$391 +25% | 21 |
dz1ft3,890 shares
Lavincey2,708 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 23 12:00 PM ET to July 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.