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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +67 pts | +81 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −25 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −42 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −48 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −42 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −9 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −2 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98d | Hurtful-Snow | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,385 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 98d | Faint-Ecosystem | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,070 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 98d |  Espagan | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,071 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 98d |  PredictionYogi | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,129 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 98d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 98d |  Green.Gold3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,743 | +$99 +0.6% | 20 |
| 98d |  jesterthegoose | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,595 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 98d | CakeBake | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,155 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 98d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,311 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 98d | BinaryBaron | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,147 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 98d | BinaryBaron | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 98d | onekey02 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,082 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 98d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,822 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 98d | Bankrupt-Loser | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,303 | +$44 +0.6% | 20 |
| 98d |  Hunter1207 | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,567 | +$29 +1.1% | 20 |
| 98d | freedom3182 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,545 | +$88 +2.5% | 21 |
| 98d | Hurtful-SnowNew account | 180-199 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,978 | +$274 +4.6% | 23 |
| 99d | AnonymousPerson2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,099 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d |  67BrainRot2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,970 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d |  3648393489047 | 180-199 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,805 | +$179 +6.4% | 22 |
| 99d | Espagan | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$85 +4.3% | 21 |
| 99d | leiger | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | anon.1980.123 | 200-219 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,873 | +$106 +5.6% | 22 |
| 99d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,172 | −$28 −0.3% | — |
| 99d | 67BrainRot | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,487 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 99d | 67BrainRot | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,619 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,354 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 99d | Solitude26 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,621 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 99d | nole-ksum | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,203 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 99d | pupupuup | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,682 | +$30 +1.1% | 20 |
| 99d | startrader2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $4,061 | +$476 +12% | 23 |
| 99d | Quick-Witted-Viscose | 160-179 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$269 +24% | 25 |
| 99d | karen2p | 160-179 | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$294 +29% | 26 |
| 99d | pupupuup | 180-199 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$434 +43% | 28 |
| 99d | nole-ksum | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 99d |  BigMackyG | 180-199 | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,876 | −$1,876 −100% | 28 |
| 99d | suyizi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,818 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 99d | BigMackyG2 fills | 180-199 | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,703 | −$1,509 −56% | — |
| 99d | Lined-Macadamia | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 99d | dafei888 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
| 99d | suifeng668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | buputong | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | luca88 | 220-239 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,156 | −$44 −2.0% | — |
| 99d | anon.1980.123 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,915 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 99d | bipbipbop | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 99d | Green.Gold | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,535 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | LinabellAccountStolen | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,309 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $13,091 | +$137 +1.0% | 20 |
| 99d |  Boss7 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,632 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d | CakeBake | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$22 +1.9% | 21 |
| 99d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,183 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | ppobb1123 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,170 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | carboyant | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,888 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | onekey02 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,868 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 99d | Ag500k | 200-219 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | −$140 −14% | — |
| 99d | onekey02 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,023 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 99d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,261 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 99d | carboyant | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 99d | Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,895 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 100d | d008 | 140-159 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$125 −12% | — |
BigMackyG7,009 shares
dz1ft5,251 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 3 12:00 PM ET to July 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.