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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +36 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −40 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135d | AnonymousPerson | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,214 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 135d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,384 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 135d | AnonymousPerson | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 135d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,069 | +$159 +1.0% | 20 |
| 136d | 2509327 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,056 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 136d |  AlmostRich2 fills | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,199 | −$122 −1.5% | — |
| 136d | Separate-Beast | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 136d | Victornettoyeur | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,296 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 136d | win-win-win99 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,784 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d | venezuelain | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d | zhenni | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,969 | +$31 +0.4% | 20 |
| 136d | Victornettoyeur | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,795 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d |  LinaBell🦊 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,189 | +$33 +0.2% | 20 |
| 136d |  Prexpect | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,495 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d |  Gustav4 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,478 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 136d | liq2 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,987 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 136d | AlmostRich2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,250 | +$247 +1.7% | 20 |
| 136d | startrader | 65-89 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | +$70 +5.9% | 22 |
| 136d |  jesterthegoose | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,203 | +$184 +4.4% | 21 |
| 136d | 5551ab | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,976 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 136d | WCWS4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,749 | +$158 +1.6% | 20 |
| 136d | livepo1y | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,921 | +$27 +1.4% | 20 |
| 136d |  upont2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,364 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d | rusgreat | 40-64 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,474 | −$163 −11% | — |
| 136d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,832 | +$218 +3.2% | 21 |
| 136d | Po1yBot-sJf2mZRWnd | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$59 +5.8% | 21 |
| 136d | Rashed24 | 40-64 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$78 −7.7% | — |
| 136d | Po1yBot-sAV3qrSTiG | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$91 +4.6% | 21 |
| 136d | Po1yBot-gDgR6e4EGH2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,063 | +$242 +3.0% | 21 |
| 136d | 0x1PM | 90-114 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | −$21 −1.9% | — |
| 136d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,594 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 136d | Jason2025 | 40-64 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | −$116 −11% | — |
| 136d | Po1yBot-9mElSBXVwM | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,072 | +$134 +4.3% | 21 |
| 136d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp | 65-89 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$103 +8.7% | 22 |
| 136d | havetodoc | 65-89 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$117 −10% | — |
| 136d | lankeleads2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,659 | +$127 +2.7% | 21 |
| 136d | pingfan666 | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$37 +3.1% | 21 |
| 136d | Jackybrown | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | +$87 +6.3% | 22 |
| 136d | karen2p | 40-64 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$187 +12% | 23 |
| 136d | startrader2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $3,038 | +$962 +32% | 26 |
| 136d | rusgreat | 40-64 | BuyNo51¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | +$1,381 +96% | 28 |
| 136d | yolol | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,023 | +$124 +2.5% | 21 |
| 136d | Ag500k | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,697 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 136d | SmolDog2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 30 |
| 136d | SmolDog | 65-89 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,687 | −$1,128 −67% | — |
| 136d | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,950 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 136d | luca88 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,500 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 136d | buputong | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,600 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 136d | suifeng668 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,300 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 136d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,400 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 136d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,500 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 136d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,300 | +$22 +0.5% | 20 |
| 136d | Ag500k3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,053 | +$122 +3.0% | 20 |
| 137d | Ag500k | 90-114 | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $3,493 | −$1,250 −36% | — |
| 137d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,778 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 137d | win-win-win99 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 137d | Ag500k2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$43 +0.9% | 20 |
| 137d | ManCangGangGanDaDanGan | <40 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | +$97 +6.4% | 21 |
| 137d | hansenyang2 fills | <40 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $2,253 | +$902 +40% | 25 |
| 137d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $1,160 | −$1,160 −100% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 1 12:00 PM ET to June 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.