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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +96 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −53 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125d | Muzamilhussain | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 125d | lankeleads | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,648 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 125d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,186 | +$182 +5.7% | 22 |
| 125d | jidong9808 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,595 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 125d | dudukos2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,194 | −$187 −3.6% | — |
| 125d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $6,424 | +$2,103 +33% | 28 |
| 125d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,775 | +$48 +1.7% | 21 |
| 125d | WCWS | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 125d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $26,440 | −$26 −0.1% | — |
| 125d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,401 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 125d | Suspicious-Warren | 65-89 | SellYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | +$1,600 +100% | — |
| 126d | TangS4189 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 126d | ShaunLee | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,331 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 126d | Remote-Exwife | 65-89 | SellYes73¢ → 0¢ | $1,329 | +$1,329 +100% | — |
| 126d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,600 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 126d |  Nikzzy | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 126d | Nikzzy | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,232 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | Suspicious-Warren | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $3,900 | −$3,900 −100% | 22 |
| 126d |  balthazar | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,331 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 126d | Ag500k | 40-64 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,381 | −$1,381 −100% | 24 |
| 126d | havetodoc | 40-64 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,951 | +$1,951 +100% | — |
| 126d | Po1yBot-sAV3qrSTiG | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $2,200 | −$2,200 −100% | 21 |
| 126d | ylnopU | 40-64 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $2,828 | +$2,828 +100% | — |
| 126d | ylnopU | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 21 |
| 126d | Po1yBot-sJf2mZRWnd | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $1,070 | −$1,070 −100% | 21 |
| 126d |  gelo39 | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | −$1,600 −100% | 22 |
| 126d | karen2p | 65-89 | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 23 |
| 126d | karen2p | 40-64 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,324 | −$1,324 −100% | 22 |
| 126d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,777 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | carboyant | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,498 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 126d |  upont | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,106 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 126d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,810 | +$188 +4.9% | 21 |
| 126d | WCWS | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,975 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d | loveheng | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,739 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,281 | +$386 +7.3% | 21 |
| 126d | havetodoc | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,068 | −$2,068 −100% | 21 |
| 126d | pingfan666 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | pingfan666 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,958 | +$21 +0.7% | 20 |
| 126d | nbjui1 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$37 +0.7% | 20 |
| 126d | upont | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,041 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 126d | JustMeZ | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,283 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 126d | carboyant | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 126d |  Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,553 | +$23 +0.5% | 20 |
| 126d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,013 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | havetodoc | 65-89 | BuyYes72¢ → 0¢ | $1,980 | −$1,980 −100% | 27 |
| 126d | Nikzzy | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,231 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 126d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,976 | +$38 +1.3% | 20 |
| 126d | Ag500k | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 126d |  Annica | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,808 | −$1,808 −100% | 21 |
| 127d | upont | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,072 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | win-win-win99 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 127d | Annica2 fills | <40 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,840 | +$132 +2.3% | 20 |
| 127d | ExpectedValue098 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,693 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 127d | SignalNotNoise001 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,195 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 127d | BayesianBet888 | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,129 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 127d | anon.1980.123 | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,230 | +$17 +1.4% | 20 |
| 127d | Annica | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$55 +3.5% | 21 |
| 128d | Boss72 fills | 215-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,411 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 128d | Boss72 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,694 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,176 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
Modest-Overshoot2,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 11 12:00 PM ET to June 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.