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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 100% | +45 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −3 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −7 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −8 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −34 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −5 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112d | Repulsive-Hit | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,601 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | Intelligent-Tax | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | Po1yBot-31gZTTt2kH | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,906 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | udt123 | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,444 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | RootWoot | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | Poiuztrewq | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,456 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 240-259 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,141 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d |  Green.Gold | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,402 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,418 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d | win-win-win99 | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 112d | Jackybrown | 240-259 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 112d | Actual-Ladle | 240-259 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,192 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 112d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,192 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 112d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,765 | +$23 +0.6% | 20 |
| 112d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,252 | +$304 +1.7% | 20 |
| 113d | Bankrupt-Loser | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,259 | +$43 +1.0% | 20 |
| 113d | Bankrupt-Loser | 240-259 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,079 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 113d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 240-259 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,724 | +$61 +1.6% | 21 |
| 113d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,763 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 113d | ProsperIntelligence | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,946 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 113d | Paulig | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,223 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 113d |  upont2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,392 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 113d |  AlmostRich | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,377 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 113d |  Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,992 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 113d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 260-279 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$78 +7.0% | 22 |
| 113d |  Meow12 | 240-259 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$81 +7.8% | 22 |
| 113d | Jackybrown | 240-259 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | +$35 +3.0% | 21 |
| 113d | AlmostRich | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,367 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 113d | karen2p | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$219 +5.5% | 22 |
| 113d |  goatyishere | 220-239 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,531 | −$180 −12% | — |
| 113d | Geopolitician008 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,297 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 113d | goatyishere | 220-239 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$111 +7.0% | 22 |
| 113d | NabFire11 | 220-239 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$126 +9.7% | 22 |
| 113d | NabFire11 | 280-299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | −$11 −0.8% | — |
| 113d | buputong | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,500 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 113d | nbjui12 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,304 | +$88 +1.7% | 20 |
| 113d | NabFire11 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,044 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 113d | upont2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,196 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 113d | Separate-Beast | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,938 | −$52 −1.3% | — |
| 113d | Separate-Beast | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,416 | +$82 +2.4% | 21 |
| 113d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,259 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 113d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,178 | +$17 +0.8% | 20 |
| 113d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,279 | +$64 +1.2% | 20 |
| 113d |  zb8 | 260-279 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$254 +25% | 25 |
| 113d | BinaryBaron | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,119 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 113d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,932 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 113d | lankeleads | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | +$47 +3.1% | 21 |
| 113d |  Mei-ji | 280-299 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | −$101 −9.2% | — |
| 113d | Adorable-Initial2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,990 | +$74 +0.7% | 20 |
| 113d | dddtrips | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 114d |  axelverse.sol | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | −$30 −1.5% | — |
| 114d | zb8 | 280-299 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$68 +6.2% | 21 |
| 114d | Top1-J | 240-259 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | −$1,203 −100% | — |
| 114d |  LinaBell🦊 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,824 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | CakeBake | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,644 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 114d | Joethebirria125 | 260-279 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $3,107 | −$1,130 −36% | — |
| 114d |  Annica3 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,724 | +$44 +0.2% | 20 |
| 114d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo100¢ | $1,835 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 114d | Paulig | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,291 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 114d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,165 | +$14 +0.6% | 20 |
dz1ft9,155 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 19 12:00 PM ET to June 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.
