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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +45 pts | +89 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −5 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −40 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −7 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129d | Prudent-Muffin | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,125 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | Soar-max | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,542 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | petrstein | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,475 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | Poiuztrewq | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,165 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | dddtrips | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,050 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | Pure-Eyeliner | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,880 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 129d |  Green.Gold | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,286 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 129d |  cww468 | 220-239 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 129d | YuzuLemon | 220-239 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$15 −1.0% | — |
| 129d | Jackybrown | 220-239 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,851 | −$49 −1.0% | — |
| 129d |  Annica | 220-239 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$235 +20% | 26 |
| 129d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $24,594 | +$2,129 +8.7% | 22 |
| 129d | Jackybrown | 220-239 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,561 | +$128 +3.6% | 21 |
| 129d | YuzuLemon | 220-239 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$229 +18% | 25 |
| 129d | startrader | 200-219 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,427 | +$573 +40% | 30 |
| 129d | dudukos | 220-239 | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 30 |
| 129d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,215 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | anon.1980.123 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,595 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 129d | bipbipbop2 fills | 240-259 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,439 | −$136 −3.1% | — |
| 130d | nole-ksum | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,031 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 130d |  upont2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,724 | +$43 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | logesh32 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,376 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 130d |  Boss7 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | BinaryBaron | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,472 | +$22 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | SmolDog | 220-239 | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,238 | −$1,238 −100% | 30 |
| 130d | WCWS | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,718 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 130d | Top1-J | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,506 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | nbjui1 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$27 +1.1% | 20 |
| 130d | loveheng | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,315 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,719 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | ppobb1123 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,003 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | yolol3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,395 | +$147 +1.6% | 20 |
| 130d | nole-ksum | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$33 +1.6% | 21 |
| 130d | Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | Healthy-Sightseeing | 220-239 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$712 +55% | 28 |
| 130d | luca88 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | buputong | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,800 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | suifeng6682 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,011 | +$29 +0.7% | 20 |
| 130d | dafei888 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,600 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | nbjui1 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,800 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | pingfan666 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,300 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | 0xredpanda | 240-259 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,486 | +$94 +3.8% | 21 |
| 130d | Ag500k2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,088 | +$260 +6.3% | 21 |
| 130d |  Mei-ji | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,494 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 130d | WCWS | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,684 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 130d |  axelverse.sol | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 130d | axelverse.sol | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Boss7 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,172 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | nole-ksum | 260-279 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,833 | −$41 −2.2% | — |
| 130d | jidong9808 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,646 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | Bankrupt-Loser | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,193 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,196 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 130d | win-win-win992 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,424 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | Mobilc | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | Mobilc | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,034 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | carboyant | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,526 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 130d | Donkolo | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 130d | bipbipbop | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$68 +5.3% | 21 |
| 130d | havetodoc | 200-219 | BuyYes67¢ → 0¢ | $1,785 | −$1,785 −100% | 25 |
| 130d | Ag500k | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,324 | +$122 +5.3% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 2 12:00 PM ET to June 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.