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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +77 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109d | Lined-Macadamia | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 110d |  AndreaPirlo | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,883 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | Knowing-Arthur-Ash | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,487 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | BinaryBaron | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,748 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 110d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,967 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d |  upont | 40-64 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$103 +7.4% | 22 |
| 110d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,452 | +$15 +1.0% | 20 |
| 110d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,335 | +$36 +1.5% | 21 |
| 110d | nbjui14 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,883 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 110d | luca88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | suntori | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | +$40 +2.9% | 21 |
| 110d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,067 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | loveheng | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,920 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | Paulig | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,746 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | Intelligent-Tax7 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $15,531 | +$670 +4.3% | 21 |
| 110d | Jackybrown | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,778 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | NeoOracle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,264 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | startrader2 fills | <40 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,622 | +$718 +8.3% | 23 |
| 110d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,021 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 110d | Bananchik1999 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 110d |  hedgebo | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 110d | suyizi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,412 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 110d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,077 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 110d | suifeng668 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,500 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 110d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,266 | +$203 +2.8% | 20 |
| 110d |  BigMackyG | <40 | SellNo26¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | −$2,974 −278% | — |
| 111d | Dymaknight | 40-64 | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | −$3,309 −234% | — |
| 111d | Adorable-Initial | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,975 | +$158 +1.6% | 20 |
| 111d | Dymaknight | 40-64 | BuyYes42¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | +$2,592 +138% | 26 |
| 111d | hedgebo | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$33 +3.3% | 21 |
| 111d | buputong | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,895 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 111d | pingfan666 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,976 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 111d | BigMackyG | <40 | SellYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,224 | +$1,224 +100% | — |
| 111d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,279 | +$29 +0.9% | 20 |
| 111d | nbjui12 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,671 | +$16 +0.6% | 20 |
| 111d | abinfafafa | 40-64 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$1,170 +100% | 25 |
| 111d | suifeng668 | 115-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,483 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 111d | dafei888 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,588 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 111d | pingfan666 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,400 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d | 0x1f05…ba7b2 fills | <40 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,085 | +$157 +7.5% | 21 |
| 112d |  Boss72 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,383 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 112d | BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,965 | −$1,965 −100% | 25 |
dz1ft2,607 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 27 12:00 PM ET to June 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.