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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 100% | +66 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −60 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101d | d008 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,135 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | niceShare | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,535 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 101d |  zcf1 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,432 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | Lined-Macadamia | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | Hasty-Worker | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,072 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | JustMeZ | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,002 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | Bananchik1999 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d |  MartinPNZ | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,039 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | BufferHarvest | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,464 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d |  jesterthegoose4 fills | 100-119 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $16,793 | +$115 +0.7% | 20 |
| 101d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 120-139 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $8,253 | +$711 +8.6% | 23 |
| 101d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,493 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | jesterthegoose | 100-119 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,338 | −$81 −1.5% | — |
| 101d | tukki | 100-119 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,429 | −$159 −1.5% | — |
| 101d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 100-119 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 101d | poposub | 100-119 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$75 +5.3% | 22 |
| 101d |  Gustav4 | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,827 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 101d |  Meow12 | 100-119 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,563 | −$52 −2.0% | — |
| 101d |  AlmostRich | 120-139 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,967 | −$115 −3.9% | — |
| 101d | startrader | 120-139 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $7,496 | +$504 +6.7% | 22 |
| 101d | startrader2 fills | 100-119 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $10,583 | +$1,155 +11% | 23 |
| 101d | AlmostRich | 120-139 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,049 +52% | 30 |
| 101d | Meow12 | 100-119 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$615 +31% | 28 |
| 101d | tukki2 fills | 100-119 | BuyNo37¢ → 100¢ | $3,732 | +$6,408 +172% | 33 |
| 101d |  Green.Gold | 100-119 | BuyYes100¢ → 0¢ | $1,757 | −$1,757 −100% | 20 |
| 101d | Gustav4 | 100-119 | BuyYes99¢ → 0¢ | $1,896 | −$1,896 −100% | 20 |
| 101d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 100-119 | BuyYes98¢ → 0¢ | $14,800 | −$14,800 −100% | 21 |
| 101d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 0¢ | $5,893 | −$5,893 −100% | 20 |
| 101d |  Ko-san-123 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,157 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | Actual-Ladle | 120-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 21 |
| 101d | Hurtful-SnowNew account | 120-139 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 23 |
| 101d |  Espagan | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,662 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 101d | sazzaa | 100-119 | SellYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,899 | +$1,899 +100% | — |
| 102d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,801 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 102d | onekey02 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,613 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,518 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | WCWS2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | nbjui1 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,005 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | cornprovide | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,400 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d |  triple-purple | 100-119 | SellYes73¢ → 0¢ | $2,028 | +$2,028 +100% | — |
| 102d | luca88 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,989 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 102d | nole-ksum | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,026 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 102d | yolol2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,829 | +$52 +0.9% | 20 |
| 102d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,456 | −$43 −1.8% | — |
| 102d | suifeng668 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,500 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 102d | onekey02 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,985 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 102d | Ko-san-123 | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 102d |  PredictionYogi | 100-119 | BuyYes61¢ → 0¢ | $1,120 | −$1,120 −100% | 28 |
| 102d | CakeBake | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,048 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d |  stauffen | 140-159 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$28 −2.4% | — |
| 102d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,141 | +$59 +1.9% | 20 |
| 102d | luca88 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,297 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | x84729153 | 100-119 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $2,192 | −$2,192 −100% | 27 |
| 102d | dafei888 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 102d | BinaryBaron4 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,869 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 102d | pingfan666 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,333 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 102d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | +$49 +2.0% | 21 |
| 102d | carboyant2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,243 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 102d | Jason2025 | 160-179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,081 | −$7 −0.7% | — |
| 102d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,944 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
bivouactenure4 shares
U1FAC0.B0AB20,000 shares
GodRama17,611 shares
WeatherPro422,850 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 30 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 120-139 means the market gives it about 100%.