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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +44 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −38 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,107 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,028 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,330 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,378 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Randomcnobodykins | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,620 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | Pure-Eyeliner | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,664 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 130d | win-win-win99 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,398 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,652 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,906 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d |  LOL525 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,700 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 130d |  Gustav4 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,311 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 130d | WCWS | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,920 | +$80 +1.0% | 20 |
| 130d | WCWS2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,710 | +$190 +4.0% | 21 |
| 130d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,345 | +$104 +1.6% | 21 |
| 130d | Jason2025 | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | +$28 +2.0% | 21 |
| 130d | WCWS | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | ylnopU | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,791 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | anon.1980.123 | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,304 | +$77 +2.3% | 21 |
| 131d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,149 | +$223 +5.4% | 22 |
| 131d |  Nikzzy | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | +$73 +6.4% | 22 |
| 131d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,357 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | AnonymousPerson2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,490 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | luca88 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | SmolDog | 40-64 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$312 +28% | 27 |
| 131d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,140 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,878 | +$246 +3.1% | 21 |
| 131d | WCWS2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,918 | +$82 +1.0% | 20 |
| 131d |  C78123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | loveheng | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,606 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d |  Boss7 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,753 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 131d | liq2 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,993 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 131d | venezuelain | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,315 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 131d | SmolDog | 65-89 | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,002 | +$1,002 +100% | — |
| 131d | bipbipbop | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,681 | +$12 +0.7% | 20 |
| 131d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,146 | +$24 +1.1% | 20 |
| 132d | morchory | 115-139 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,193 | −$65 −3.0% | — |
| 132d |  Green.Gold | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,187 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 132d | win-win-win992 fills | <40 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,907 | +$101 +3.5% | 21 |
| 132d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,585 | +$415 +4.3% | 21 |
| 132d | ylnopU | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$22 +1.8% | 20 |
| 132d | Ag500k2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,847 | +$86 +2.2% | 20 |
| 132d | anon.1980.123 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,940 | +$60 +1.2% | 20 |
| 132d | morchory | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,458 | +$42 +1.2% | 20 |
| 134d | Boss7 | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft3,151 shares
Lavincey779 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 6 12:00 PM ET to June 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.