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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220-239 | 100% | +62 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −4 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −39 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −40 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −48 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −13 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150d | byteA | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,603 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | niceShare | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,166 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 150d |  hidden-james | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,010 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | QazWhale | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,112 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | anon.1980.123 | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,452 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | Dense-Muscat | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,114 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | lucknite | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,766 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | lucknite | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $21,654 | −$22 −0.1% | — |
| 150d | 0x1PM | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,070 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | namames | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,474 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | Repulsive-Hit | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,905 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | BinaryBaron | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,494 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  LOL525 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,700 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  Prexpect | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,982 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | Prexpect2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $29,709 | +$41 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  Annica9 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $23,878 | +$10,568 +44% | 28 |
| 151d | Marioboros | 220-239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,415 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 151d |  winnipeg | 240-259 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | −$23 −2.1% | — |
| 151d |  PredictionYogi | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | jianghua3504 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,100 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 151d | RickRockRick2 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,283 | +$55 +1.0% | 20 |
| 151d |  Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 151d | Gustav4 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,257 | +$13 +1.0% | 20 |
| 151d | yolol | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,886 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 |
| 151d | yolol2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,503 | +$139 +1.1% | 20 |
| 151d | wangchengc | 220-239 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | −$56 −3.9% | — |
| 151d | Wild-Manner | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | beatyesterday | 220-239 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,609 | +$64 +4.0% | 21 |
| 151d | wangying1 | 220-239 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | −$132 −10% | — |
| 151d | bezneslawt | 220-239 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $7,750 | −$977 −13% | — |
| 151d | namames | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,375 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 151d |  MyLilKamala | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,037 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  hellobrother | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 220-239 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | −$125 −8.4% | — |
| 151d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe | 240-259 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,849 | −$182 −9.9% | — |
| 151d | chopho | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$24 +2.0% | 21 |
| 151d |  yymywhz | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,026 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | chopho | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,192 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 151d | Repulsive-Hit | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 151d |  520111 | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  wnyrp | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,195 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  shmypys | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,139 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | mitikohalls | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,921 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  xfxylwx | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,120 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | 0xbea8…36ef | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$45 +1.5% | 20 |
| 151d | 0xbea8…36ef | 220-239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$45 +1.5% | 20 |
| 151d | 0xbea8…36ef | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,243 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | 0xbea8…36ef | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,346 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 151d | mitikohalls | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,039 | +$103 +2.0% | 21 |
| 151d |  FraterTetractous | 220-239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$32 +2.1% | 21 |
| 151d | Annica | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $31,080 | +$62 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d |  vxih | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,112 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d |  hrhhh | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,205 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d |  fvphni | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,132 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d |  Nikzzy | 220-239 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,140 | +$165 +5.3% | 22 |
| 151d |  C78123 | 220-239 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,156 | −$116 −5.4% | — |
| 151d | Dense-Muscat | 240-259 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$169 +3.4% | 21 |
| 151d | euprty | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d | 528.btc | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,510 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d | deamfreeman | 220-239 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$65 +5.4% | 22 |
dz1ft5,017 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220-239 means the market gives it about 100%.