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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +72 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −62 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151d | chopho | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,101 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | anon.1980.123 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,158 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | namames | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 151d | Po1yBot-Jgb24zFpNP | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,462 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 151d |  Panopticon007 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,696 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,120 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 152d |  Annica6 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $18,943 | +$670 +3.5% | 21 |
| 152d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,773 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | nbjui1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,466 | +$141 +1.5% | 20 |
| 152d | ylnopU | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,021 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 152d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,835 | +$105 +1.3% | 20 |
| 152d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,536 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 152d |  jesterthegoose3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,703 | +$184 +3.9% | 21 |
| 152d | Annica2 fills | 65-89 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,754 | −$288 −3.0% | — |
| 152d |  Gustav4 | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,070 | +$64 +6.0% | 22 |
| 152d | pramuja | 90-114 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | −$97 −6.6% | — |
| 152d | pramujahl2 fills | 90-114 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,026 | −$77 −3.8% | — |
| 152d | TomSargent3 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $10,880 | +$435 +4.0% | 21 |
| 152d | nickthechopper | 90-114 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,549 | −$80 −5.1% | — |
| 152d | qianwaiqian007 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,006 | +$25 +1.3% | 20 |
| 152d | rusgreat | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | +$33 +2.2% | 21 |
| 152d | TheTommyToes | 65-89 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$48 −4.2% | — |
| 152d | neymar777 | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$42 +3.6% | 21 |
| 152d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$176 +3.5% | 21 |
| 152d |  mostobesegoldfish | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,916 | +$84 +4.4% | 21 |
| 152d |  Nikzzy2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,211 | +$175 +4.2% | 21 |
| 152d |  C78123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | Wild-Manner | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$55 +4.3% | 21 |
| 152d |  KARMASUR | 90-114 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$62 +5.6% | 22 |
| 152d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,904 | +$24 +0.3% | 20 |
| 152d | Arctic-Insolence | 65-89 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | −$96 −8.9% | — |
| 152d | Intelligent-Tax4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,354 | +$292 +3.1% | 21 |
| 152d | Scented-Pliers | 90-114 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,899 | −$180 −6.2% | — |
| 152d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,988 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 152d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | Jackybrown | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,898 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | 0xbea8…36ef | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | Po1yBot-QI6GR4DKSp2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,465 | +$236 +6.8% | 22 |
| 152d | 1111 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,375 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | 66666666666666666666 | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,753 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d |  AlmostRich | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,400 | +$36 +0.6% | 20 |
| 152d | jesterthegoose2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,065 | +$201 +4.0% | 21 |
| 152d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,244 | +$56 +2.5% | 21 |
| 152d | Po1yBot-Jgb24zFpNP | 65-89 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$78 +5.6% | 21 |
| 152d | morchory | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,596 | +$69 +4.3% | 21 |
| 152d | Annica3 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,736 | +$169 +2.2% | 21 |
| 152d |  meagainsttheworld | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$97 +3.9% | 21 |
| 152d | jesterthegoose | 65-89 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$140 +11% | 23 |
| 152d | WCWS | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,336 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
| 152d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,964 | +$101 +1.5% | 20 |
| 152d |  PM6662 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,865 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | 1v6sggg | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,293 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | livepo1y | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,933 | +$41 +2.1% | 21 |
| 152d | Nimble-Outhouse | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | +$28 +2.8% | 21 |
| 152d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,099 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 152d | Nimble-Outhouse | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,950 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 152d | Ashurnasirpal | 65-89 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | +$149 +12% | 23 |
| 152d |  winnipeg | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $11,500 | +$748 +6.5% | 22 |
| 152d | Jadehaven | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
MaxiChibrax14,141 shares
nimikm1,100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.