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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +91 pts | +91 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −21 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −73 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136d | Lined-Macadamia | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,411 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 136d | still | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,113 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | Rashed24 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,369 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  saragus | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,222 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  Elonurmom | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,371 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | 0x1PM | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,066 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | Pure-Eyeliner | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,311 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,191 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 137d |  Green.Gold2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $32,841 | +$44 +0.1% | 20 |
| 137d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,322 | +$301 +4.1% | 21 |
| 137d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,626 | +$15 +0.4% | 20 |
| 137d |  FraterTetractous | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 137d | Bankrupt-Loser | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$42 +2.1% | 21 |
| 137d | Bankrupt-Loser | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$57 +2.9% | 21 |
| 137d |  Dr.napol | 160-179 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$66 +6.2% | 22 |
| 137d | WCWS2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,821 | +$179 +3.7% | 21 |
| 137d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 137d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,777 | +$48 +0.3% | 20 |
| 137d | carboyant | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,592 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 137d | ShaunLee | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,016 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 137d | niceShare | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,567 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | still | 160-179 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$315 +18% | 25 |
| 137d | dudukos | 180-199 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $3,076 | −$1,171 −38% | — |
| 137d | WCWS | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 137d | PredictionYogi | 180-199 | SellYes36¢ → 0¢ | $1,401 | +$1,401 +100% | — |
| 137d | dudukos2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,247 +42% | 30 |
| 137d | pingfan666 | 180-199 | SellNo67¢ → 100¢ | $1,914 | −$928 −48% | — |
| 137d | Ag500k | 180-199 | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $3,717 | −$2,100 −57% | — |
| 137d | startrader | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,033 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  lolboy4D | 180-199 | BuyYes22¢ → 0¢ | $1,137 | −$1,137 −100% | 31 |
| 137d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,416 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 137d | Rashed24 | 160-179 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$70 +5.4% | 22 |
| 137d | buputong | 180-199 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,939 | −$242 −6.2% | — |
| 137d | petrstein | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,578 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | AnonymousPerson | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,980 | −$20 −0.2% | — |
| 137d | RootWoot | 160-179 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$131 +5.7% | 22 |
| 137d | RootWoot | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,138 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  C78123 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 137d | Repulsive-Eyelids | 160-179 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,619 | −$85 −5.3% | — |
| 137d | Dymaknight | 160-179 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,312 | −$109 −3.3% | — |
| 137d | Jackybrown | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,999 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | marbas | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,168 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 137d |  AlmostRich | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,371 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | −$44 −3.8% | — |
| 137d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,062 | +$56 +1.8% | 21 |
| 137d | EMbrace | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,841 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 137d | AlmostRich | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,250 | +$128 +1.8% | 21 |
| 137d | liq2 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 137d | YuzuLemon | 160-179 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$153 +15% | 24 |
| 137d | Jackybrown | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | +$32 +2.2% | 21 |
| 137d | startrader2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,245 | +$794 +11% | 23 |
| 137d | EMbrace | 140-159 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,673 | +$170 +10% | 23 |
| 137d |  Meow12 | 160-179 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | +$215 +7.5% | 22 |
| 137d |  LinaBell🦊 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,256 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 137d | lolboy4D | 160-179 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,801 | −$200 −11% | — |
| 137d | RootWoot | 140-159 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$140 +7.0% | 22 |
| 137d | lolboy4D | 160-179 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | +$259 +25% | 27 |
| 137d | AnonymousPerson | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,317 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 137d | Why-always-me | 140-159 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $2,300 | −$2,300 −100% | 28 |
| 137d | Ag500k | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,699 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 26 12:00 PM ET to June 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.