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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 100% | +92 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −13 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −55 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −30 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 154d |  Elonurmom | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,303 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  Archeroon | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,671 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Happy-Communicant-GogglesNew account | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,496 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | SLG007 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,315 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  FraterTetractous | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,797 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | FraterTetractous | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,151 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 154d |  upont | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,094 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 154d | Dense-Muscat | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $6,339 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | logesh32 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,854 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | wangying1 | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,897 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | htr3gtrhg | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,765 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | onekey022 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $45,366 | +$66 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | ostoto | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,862 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | luonanren | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,007 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | voroniko | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,108 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | onekey02 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $69,917 | +$70 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | Arctic-Insolence | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 155d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,722 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 155d |  Annica4 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $16,839 | +$647 +3.8% | 21 |
| 155d | Victornettoyeur2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,087 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 155d | nbjui1 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,500 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d |  PM666 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,060 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 155d | Annica2 fills | 140-159 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,356 | −$50 −1.2% | — |
| 155d | bipbipbop3 fills | 160-179 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,440 | −$95 −2.1% | — |
| 155d | lucas68 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 155d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,863 | +$55 +1.1% | 20 |
| 155d | neutralwave23 | 140-159 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | −$16 −1.3% | — |
| 155d |  jesterthegoose2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $22,021 | +$1,011 +4.6% | 21 |
| 155d | PredictionYogi | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,981 | +$32 +1.6% | 21 |
| 155d | ok2606 | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,782 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 155d |  kejsi | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,218 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 155d |  yrteyeyterthbtyfc | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,620 | +$36 +1.0% | 20 |
| 155d | Elonurmom | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,260 | +$48 +0.9% | 20 |
| 155d | htr3gtrhg | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,751 | +$16 +0.9% | 20 |
| 155d | OnlySafeBets | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,198 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | PredictionYogi | 140-159 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,249 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 155d | carboyant2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,174 | −$108 −1.1% | — |
| 155d | WCWS | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | Papuasus | 140-159 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,168 | −$141 −2.3% | — |
| 155d | Archeroon | 140-159 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,443 | −$35 −2.5% | — |
| 155d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $25,941 | −$43 −0.2% | — |
| 155d | FraterTetractous | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 155d | Solitude26 | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,932 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | Stormy-Gaiters | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,738 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | Baggy-Watcher | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,096 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | sunqibin | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,450 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | EMbrace | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,322 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 155d | SerAI | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,400 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 155d |  Prexpect | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $39,960 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d |  Gustav4 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,193 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | 66666666666666666666 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,050 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d |  AlmostRich | 140-159 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $6,200 | +$327 +5.3% | 22 |
| 155d | jesterthegoose3 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $21,747 | +$1,736 +8.0% | 22 |
| 155d | GRILLEDCHEESESANDWICH87 | 140-159 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$100 +6.7% | 22 |
| 155d | sunqibin | 120-139 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$225 +18% | 25 |
| 155d | Archeroon | 140-159 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,204 | +$219 +18% | 25 |
| 155d | xxtgsy | 140-159 | SellNo20¢ → 0¢ | $1,033 | +$1,033 +100% | — |
| 155d | YuzuLemon | 120-139 | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,571 | +$429 +27% | 27 |
| 155d | jianghua3504 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,100 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 155d | SerAI | 160-179 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,432 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
nimikm3,500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 8 12:00 PM ET to May 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-159 means the market gives it about 100%.