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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +28 pts | +93 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −14 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −18 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 364d | Abdikariim45 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,549 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | Poiuztrewq | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,729 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d |  Annica2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,452 | +$87 +3.5% | 21 |
| 365d | MRMX666 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,061 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 365d |  ElonSpam | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,561 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,983 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 365d | bobobullmask | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,613 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 365d |  Gustav4 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | 56reeee | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,300 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | Gustav4 | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$26 +2.0% | 21 |
| 365d | PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | +$47 +3.6% | 21 |
| 365d | Cold-BuzzNew account | 180-199 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | +$33 +2.7% | 22 |
| 365d | duimiadj | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$30 +2.0% | 21 |
| 365d | PredictionYogi | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 365d |  HolyMoses7 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | PredictionYogi | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,131 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 365d | Gustav42 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,898 | +$29 +0.4% | 20 |
| 365d |  lolboy4D | 160-179 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$693 +46% | 30 |
| 365d |  basedcigany | 200-219 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,724 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 |
| 365d | Annica | 160-179 | BuyYes60¢ → 0¢ | $1,044 | −$1,044 −100% | 30 |
| 365d | jesuschristcoded | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,575 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | sweetlolo | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 365d | jesuschristcoded | 220-239 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,565 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 365d | jeyjeyjey | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,500 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | ElonSpam | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,671 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d |  imp | 160-179 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$480 −32% | — |
| 365d | jesuschristcoded | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,715 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 365d |  MariusK | 160-179 | BuyYes43¢ → 0¢ | $1,101 | −$1,101 −100% | 28 |
| 365d | MariusK | 180-199 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | −$1,205 −109% | — |
| 365d | MariusK | 180-199 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,575 | +$502 +32% | 26 |
| 365d | Matelleti | 160-179 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,299 | −$116 −8.9% | — |
| 366d | ElonSpam | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,796 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | elle946lois | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,466 | −$36 −0.8% | — |
| 366d | lukascolt220 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,425 | +$54 +1.2% | 20 |
| 366d | ginosebastian4598 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,427 | +$54 +1.2% | 20 |
| 366d | ianto47christine | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,411 | +$54 +1.2% | 20 |
| 366d | ElonSpam2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,636 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 366d | Annica | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | Annica | 200-219 | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $1,454 | +$1,454 +100% | — |
| 366d | quanterty | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | quanterty | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | quanterty | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 366d | quanterty | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 366d | quanterty | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 366d | quanterty | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$295 +3.0% | 20 |
| 367d | Annica2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,919 | +$76 +2.6% | 20 |
| 367d | Poory | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,429 | +$32 +1.3% | 20 |
| 367d | jesuschristcoded | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,710 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 367d |  thefakenick | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d | ElonSpam2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,989 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d | minicake | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$15 +1.4% | 20 |
| 367d |  stauffen | 240-259 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | +$408 +17% | 22 |
| 367d | pol76 | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$48 +3.2% | 21 |
| 368d | imp | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,969 | +$82 +4.2% | 20 |
| 368d | imp2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,380 | +$30 +0.9% | 20 |
| 368d | ElonSpam3 fills | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $51,163 | +$79 +0.2% | 20 |
| 369d | pol76 | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$43 +2.9% | 20 |
| 369d | bavfws | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 369d | ElonSpam | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,778 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 369d | ElonSpam | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,399 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls10,147 shares
sickgambler1,000 shares
Novus0rdoSeclorum837 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 10 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.