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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −74 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d |  Mei-ji | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,319 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 11d | Bersa1202 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,298 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 11d |  memetal | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d | Donkolo | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,432 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,794 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d |  y111m112 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,496 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 12d | ym-mzt1 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,406 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 12d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,991 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 12d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,820 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 12d |  upont | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,321 | +$35 +0.8% | 20 |
| 12d | phanish | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,370 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 12d |  Sugarina | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,049 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 12d | YuzuLemon | 65-89 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$208 +17% | 25 |
| 12d | upont | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,060 | +$16 +1.5% | 20 |
| 12d | ElonSimp | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$18 +1.4% | 20 |
| 12d | AllYouCanEat | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,880 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 12d | Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 12d | CakeBake2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 12d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,493 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 12d | Kayakingzzz | 90-114 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,085 | +$64 +5.9% | 21 |
| 12d | Mei-ji | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,034 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | upont | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,030 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 13d | dddtrips | 40-64 | BuyYes71¢ → 0¢ | $1,076 | −$1,076 −100% | 25 |
| 13d | DrunkenKraken | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,394 | +$13 +0.9% | 20 |
| 14d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | CakeBake | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,080 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Mei-ji | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  TweetPulse.Live | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,114 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
WeiRiverMonk116 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 3 12:00 PM ET to October 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.