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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +57 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −27 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −4 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 343d |  Annica4 fills | 160-179 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $24,919 | −$2,311 −9.3% | — |
| 343d |  TheFBIAgent | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,176 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 343d | alideux | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 343d | QWERTYXYZ | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,957 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 343d | cryptoriser | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,141 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 343d | wedemboiz | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,013 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 343d |  noreasapa4 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $42,318 | +$66 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | check12345 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 343d | Struga | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,364 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 343d | Easymoneykin | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,088 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | glarity | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,153 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | hunblake12 | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | Annica11 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $34,548 | +$5,228 +15% | 24 |
| 343d | Bublich | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,628 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 343d | Doting-Cygnet | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,154 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 343d | Ofiser | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,077 | +$60 +0.3% | 20 |
| 343d | leiger | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,457 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 343d |  Prexpect4 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,390 | +$63 +0.5% | 20 |
| 343d | Klausger | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,023 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 343d | cipherpilot2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,214 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 343d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,243 | +$132 +0.9% | 20 |
| 343d | cryptoriser | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,130 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 343d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,300 | −$33 −0.5% | — |
| 343d | tinhthuc | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,276 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | Prexpect2 fills | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,056 | −$50 −0.6% | — |
| 343d | Ashamed-Cappuccino | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,341 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 343d | Huseynnn3 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,221 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | internetcapitalmarket | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | jme21 | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,669 | −$20 −0.3% | — |
| 343d | degenpingg | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,566 | +$37 +0.2% | 20 |
| 343d | costcostaff012 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,528 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 343d | painterl | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,076 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 343d | pyridin | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,343 | +$39 +0.7% | 20 |
| 343d | pikaqiuzwx2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,565 | +$107 +3.0% | 21 |
| 343d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,812 | +$80 +1.0% | 20 |
| 344d | fanzong1024 | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,552 | +$147 +1.0% | 20 |
| 344d | pyridin | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,695 | +$63 +1.1% | 20 |
| 344d | Doting-Cygnet | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,122 | +$35 +1.1% | 20 |
| 344d | cigarettes4 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,789 | +$30 +0.5% | 20 |
| 344d | cigarettes4 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,418 | +$237 +4.4% | 21 |
| 344d |  ChaeChae2 fills | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,145 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 344d |  BigBlackGorilla | 160-179 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,687 | +$143 +2.1% | 21 |
| 344d | oragee | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,285 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | zillaman | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | patient. | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,214 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | Mr.kaiji | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | laungh | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 344d |  DontKnowAnything | 160-179 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$74 +4.9% | 22 |
| 344d | QWERTYXYZ | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,223 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 344d | cryptoriser | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,125 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 344d |  4.56 | 160-179 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,083 | +$324 +6.4% | 22 |
| 344d | MAGA.ONE2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,247 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  HolyMoses7 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $11,841 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 344d |  basedcigany | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $27,879 | −$28 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | 4.56 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,083 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 344d | HolyMoses7 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,841 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  Gustav4 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,197 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 344d | Victornettoyeur4 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,893 | +$258 +3.3% | 21 |
| 344d | 0x265f…a448 | 160-179 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | +$120 +8.7% | 23 |
| 344d | 0x97cc…bbbf | 140-159 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,182 | +$138 +2.7% | 21 |
OuchMyBalls5,222 shares
bigmoneymathew1,300 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 31 12:00 PM ET to November 7, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.