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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +53 pts | +84 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −29 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −7 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38d |  upont | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,045 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 38d | Shallow-Diadem | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,908 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 38d | sazzaa | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,667 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 38d | beatyesterday6 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,642 | +$87 +0.4% | 20 |
| 38d |  LinaBell🦊 | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,976 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,663 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 38d |  Sugarina | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,546 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 38d | beatyesterday2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,288 | +$77 +0.8% | 20 |
| 39d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,129 | +$70 +2.2% | 21 |
| 39d | sazzaa | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,583 | +$87 +3.4% | 21 |
| 39d | carboyant | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,090 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,870 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$84 −7.9% | — |
| 39d | barell4 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $7,755 | +$847 +11% | 23 |
| 39d | Jackybrown | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,587 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 39d | sazzaa2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,465 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d | karen2p3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,248 | +$501 +9.5% | 22 |
| 39d | beatyesterday2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,572 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 39d | startrader | 180-199 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,769 | +$231 +13% | 23 |
| 39d | YuzuLemon | 200-219 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$410 +34% | 27 |
| 39d |  BigMackyG | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,354 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 39d | Intelligent-Tax | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$66 +4.2% | 21 |
| 39d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d |  leleko2k | 180-199 | SellNo63¢ → 100¢ | $2,017 | −$1,166 −58% | — |
| 39d | upont | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,464 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 39d | leleko2k | 220-239 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$126 +8.4% | 22 |
| 39d | beatyesterday | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,082 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d | xiaojido202 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,229 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | carboyant | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,596 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,135 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | onekey02 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,140 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,113 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 39d | upont | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,828 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 39d | 0xf14e…6173 | 220-239 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$187 +7.5% | 22 |
| 39d | upont | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d | upont | 160-179 | SellNo100¢ | $1,750 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 39d | leleko2k | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$25 +1.5% | 20 |
| 40d | dddtrips3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,909 | +$907 +23% | 23 |
| 40d | rw-mehtape | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,890 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d |  Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,301 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d |  decacepa | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 41d | Boss7 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,190 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 41d | BigMackyG | 200-219 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,075 | −$1,075 −100% | 25 |
| 41d | leleko2k | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$61 +5.5% | 21 |
| 41d | Boss7 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,456 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 41d | leleko2k2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,344 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 42d | leleko2k | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 42d | hollyhod | 160-179 | BuyNo100¢ | $6,674 | +$34 +0.5% | 20 |
| 42d | 0xf14e…6173 | 180-199 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$203 +8.1% | 20 |
| 42d | minutemans | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 42d | gmgmmm | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 42d | leleko2k | 280-299 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | +$62 +4.8% | 20 |
| 42d | CakeBake | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,406 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d | bipbipbop | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 42d | Boss7 | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,947 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d | Boss73 fills | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,140 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d | Icannotwin | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 43d | bipbipbop | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,158 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 43d | CakeBake | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,108 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 43d |  LordS | 80-99 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
dz1ft10,533 sharesBigMackyG1,968 shares
Eliezerflus2.01,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.