Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +60 pts | +83 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −14 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −56 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −7 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28d | d008 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 28d | akula202i | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,048 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 28d |  hirichzhou | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,976 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 28d |  Prexpect2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,409 | +$23 +0.5% | 20 |
| 28d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,868 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 28d | Ronke | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,536 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 28d |  Bot4 | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,155 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 28d | niceShare | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,689 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 28d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,510 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 28d |  upont | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 28d | ElonSimp | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,505 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 28d | Actual-Ladle | 200-219 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,470 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 28d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,472 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 28d |  LinaBell🦊 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,736 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 28d | karen2p3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,009 | +$330 +5.5% | 22 |
| 28d | Jackybrown | 200-219 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$197 +20% | 25 |
| 28d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,710 | −$923 −25% | — |
| 28d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | +$23 +1.5% | 20 |
| 28d | froku | 200-219 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,874 | −$88 −4.7% | — |
| 28d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,023 | −$54 −1.8% | — |
| 28d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 28d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,795 | +$104 +1.5% | 21 |
| 28d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,450 | +$25 +0.7% | 20 |
| 28d | Partial-Robin-Patience | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,350 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 28d | startrader | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,028 | −$61 −1.0% | — |
| 28d | crashhbandii7 | 200-219 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,937 | −$139 −7.2% | — |
| 28d | pupupuup2 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$147 +4.9% | 22 |
| 28d | startrader | 180-199 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | +$402 +25% | 27 |
| 28d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,890 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 28d | LinabellAccountStolen | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,756 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 29d | beatyesterday2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,451 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 29d | carboyant | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,228 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 29d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,442 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
| 29d | ElonSimp | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 29d | Intelligent-Tax | 180-199 | BuyYes94¢ → 0¢ | $1,378 | −$1,378 −100% | 22 |
| 29d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,379 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 29d | pupupuup | 180-199 | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 23 |
| 29d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,510 | −$1,510 −100% | 24 |
| 29d |  y111m11 | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,289 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 29d | Houdray | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,861 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 29d | upont | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 29d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$53 +1.5% | 20 |
| 29d | carboyant2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,472 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 29d | onekey023 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,311 | +$27 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d | upont2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,388 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 30d |  Mei-ji3 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d | bipbipbop | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,264 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 30d | carboyant | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 30d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,056 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 30d | Actual-Ladle | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,400 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 30d | LinabellAccountStolen | 140-159 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,486 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 30d |  Boss72 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,930 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,577 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 30d |  Elonurmom2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $5,601 | +$989 +18% | 21 |
| 30d | ProsperIntelligence | 220-239 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,465 | +$201 +14% | 22 |
| 30d | CakeBake2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,502 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 30d | Mei-ji | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d | d0082 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$221 +6.2% | 20 |
| 30d | upont | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,993 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 11 12:00 PM ET to September 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.