Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +63 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −53 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −5 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −1 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 388d | Atkangaroo | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,554 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 388d | Bitgod | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,546 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 388d | LazyWanker | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,365 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 388d | NeoWick | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $50,302 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | leiger | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,853 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,789 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d |  Annica3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,263 | +$23 +0.5% | 20 |
| 388d |  Prexpect2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,210 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 388d | DonaldMusk13 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,845 | +$47 +0.8% | 20 |
| 388d | 0x265f…a448 | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 389d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,735 | +$387 +14% | 24 |
| 389d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | zeus762 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 389d | glarity | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,335 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,924 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 389d | ElonSpam5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,785 | +$70 +0.2% | 20 |
| 389d | Annica | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,811 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | astromage | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,044 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | astromage | 180-199 | BuyNo87¢ → 0¢ | $1,740 | −$1,740 −100% | 23 |
| 389d | cipherpilot | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,171 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Old-Fashioned-OutsetNew account | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,412 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 390d |  MariusK | 180-199 | SellNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,306 | +$1,306 +100% | — |
| 390d | Annica | 260-279 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,132 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 390d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,237 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 390d |  mrcojocaru | 180-199 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $2,506 | −$2,506 −100% | 21 |
| 390d | ElonSpam | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,147 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 390d | ElonSpam3 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,223 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 391d | Atkangaroo | 260-279 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$57 +2.3% | 20 |
| 391d | ElonSpam2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,689 | +$13 +0.3% | 20 |
| 391d | pablos2-113 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,185 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 391d | HardlandSus | 220-239 | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,802 | +$810 +45% | 25 |
| 392d | zeus76 | 220-239 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$436 +22% | 21 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,108 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,618 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d | Poory | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,973 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 392d | MariusK | 180-199 | BuyNo98¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 500-519 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,014 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,014 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d | ElonSpam | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,014 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 392d |  stauffen | 260-279 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,313 | +$460 +14% | 21 |
| 394d |  imp | 120-139 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$21 +2.1% | 20 |
jackyiu1,644 shares
vamnizar200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 16 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.