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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 100% | +95 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −2 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −54 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −36 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −4 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d | niceShare | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,253 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | RootWoot | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,671 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | 0x1e0T6R5318CS78H73eR4 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,027 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | RomMarin1995 | 200-219 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,188 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 10d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,372 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d |  PredictionYogi | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,443 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10d |  Feracios | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 10d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,650 | +$48 +1.3% | 20 |
| 10d |  LinaBell🦊 | 200-219 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,550 | −$93 −6.0% | — |
| 10d | bipbipbop | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,116 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 10d |  Gustav4-14 fills | 200-219 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,298 | +$35 +0.4% | 20 |
| 10d |  DvePlotnieBanki | 200-219 | SellYes100¢ | $4,104 | −$21 −0.5% | — |
| 10d | Gustav4-1 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,486 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 10d | carboyant | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 11d |  Espagan | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,203 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 11d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 220-239 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$60 +5.3% | 22 |
| 11d |  Archeroon | 200-219 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | +$90 +5.3% | 22 |
| 11d | RootWoot | 200-219 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$70 +6.3% | 22 |
| 11d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,691 | +$69 +0.8% | 20 |
| 11d |  Boss7 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 11d | AllYouCanEat | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,903 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d | RomMarin1995 | 200-219 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$668 +44% | 28 |
| 11d | RootWoot | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,706 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 11d | CakeBake | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,043 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 11d | Intelligent-Tax | 240-259 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$100 +5.3% | 21 |
| 11d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,571 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d | Donkolo | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,433 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 11d |  BigMackyG | 200-219 | SellNo90¢ → 0¢ | $1,354 | +$1,354 +100% | — |
| 11d | dddtrips3 fills | 220-239 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $3,770 | −$3,770 −100% | 22 |
| 11d | phanish | 200-219 | BuyNo96¢ → 0¢ | $1,300 | −$1,300 −100% | 21 |
| 12d | rw-mehtape | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,989 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 12d | thoodr | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,725 | +$22 +0.8% | 20 |
| 12d | zhenni | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 12d | DrunkenKraken | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,401 | −$1,401 −100% | 21 |
| 12d | dddtrips | 240-259 | BuyYes32¢ → 0¢ | $1,147 | −$1,147 −100% | 25 |
| 12d | Partial-Robin-Patience | 180-199 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,625 | −$12 −0.7% | — |
| 13d | Boss7 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,829 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 13d | Boss7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,162 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 13d |  Elonurmom | 180-199 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,244 | −$236 −11% | — |
| 14d |  stauffen | 220-239 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$1,820 +55% | 22 |
| 14d | bipbipbop | 160-179 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,264 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 14d | rw-mehtape | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,808 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Boss7 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,878 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | ellio8989 | 220-239 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,327 | −$1,327 −100% | 23 |
| 14d | Icannotwin | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | CakeBake | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,594 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | hulitest2025 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,379 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | RootWoot | 260-279 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$146 +9.7% | 21 |
| 15d |  UnstoppableLoxodont | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,961 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d | clggzz2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,360 | +$19 +0.8% | 20 |
| 17d | Ocucumber | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,087 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 17d |  hirichzhou | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,879 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 19d | Elonurmom | 180-199 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$480 +24% | 20 |
| 20d | Boss7 | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,622 | +$29 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21d |  TweetPulse.Live | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,993 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
labistiiia1,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 29 12:00 PM ET to October 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 200-219 means the market gives it about 100%.