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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160-179 | 100% | +25 pts | +86 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −4 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −32 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −4 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35d | chocolate123 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,980 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 35d | froku | 160-179 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,715 | −$27 −0.7% | — |
| 35d | Intelligent-Tax | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,169 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,633 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d |  CoinTrick | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,654 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | CoinTrick | 160-179 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | jabali-furioso | 160-179 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,262 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 35d | venezuelain2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,513 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 35d | RootWoot | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,307 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 35d | beatyesterday2 fills | 160-179 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,877 | +$61 +0.9% | 20 |
| 35d |  Bot4 | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,383 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 35d | 0B06 | 180-199 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$50 +3.1% | 21 |
| 35d | Actual-Ladle | 180-199 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,250 | +$155 +4.8% | 22 |
| 35d | 0xf14e…6173 | 160-179 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$151 +7.5% | 22 |
| 35d | Intelligent-Tax | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,597 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 36d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,328 | +$33 +0.3% | 20 |
| 36d | CakeBake | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,396 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | CakeBake2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,834 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 36d |  stauffen | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,917 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 36d | ellio8989 | 160-179 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,563 | +$437 +28% | 27 |
| 36d |  upont | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,126 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | jidong9808 | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,152 | +$9 +0.8% | 20 |
| 36d |  LinaBell🦊 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,108 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 36d | 5551ab | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,660 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 36d | carboyant | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,114 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 36d | carboyant | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,718 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | beatyesterday | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,983 | +$61 +1.2% | 20 |
| 36d | ElonSimp3 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,588 | +$54 +1.0% | 20 |
| 36d | karen2p | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,697 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 36d | free00 | 160-179 | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,281 | −$1,233 −96% | — |
| 36d | Kkirito | 160-179 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$298 +25% | 27 |
| 36d | grokel | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 36d | ElonSimp | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,342 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 36d | hetacz | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,271 | +$195 +8.6% | 22 |
| 36d | free00 | 160-179 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$153 +13% | 23 |
| 36d |  AlmostRich | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,980 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | 0xdd16…901e | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,747 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | PredictionYogi | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,362 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | ElonSimp2 fills | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,165 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 36d | karen2p | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$68 +1.4% | 20 |
| 36d | AlmostRich | 140-159 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,935 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 36d | ProsperIntelligence | 160-179 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | −$205 −20% | — |
| 36d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 160-179 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$190 +18% | 24 |
| 36d | Amir10001 | 140-159 | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,346 | −$573 −13% | — |
| 36d | 0xf14e…6173 | 180-199 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | +$264 +12% | 23 |
| 36d | anon.1980.123 | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,107 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 36d | onekey02 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 36d | bipbipbop | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,017 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 36d | Honeybabylove | 200-219 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | −$23 −1.9% | — |
| 36d | Amir10001 | 140-159 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$128 +2.6% | 21 |
| 36d | carboyant | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,772 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36d | nole-ksum | 140-159 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$45 −4.1% | — |
| 36d | stauffen | 200-219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$121 +6.7% | 21 |
| 37d | Honeybabylove | 200-219 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,167 | +$106 +9.1% | 21 |
| 37d | 0xf14e…61732 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,853 | +$323 +11% | 21 |
| 37d | CakeBake | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,515 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 37d | CakeBake | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 37d | clggzz | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,494 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 37d | hollyhod2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,723 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft2,840 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 160-179 means the market gives it about 100%.