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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10M | 40% | −3 pts | +14 pts | 13¢ · 66¢ (53¢) | — | — |
| $5M | 38% | −3 pts | −4 pts | 13¢ · 63¢ (50¢) | — | in 75d |
| $25M | 22% | — | +8 pts | 14¢ · 30¢ (16¢) | $6.79 | — |
| $50M | 6% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | — |
| $100M | 2% | 0 pts | −5 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $51.1 | in 75d |
| $800M | 2% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $197 | in 75d |
| $300M | 1% | −1 pts | −4 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | $200 | in 75d |
| $2B | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $1.01 | in 75d |
| $1B | 1% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $1.01 | in 75d |
| $500M | 1% | — | −4 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $39.8 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | $500M | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,000 | +$37 +3.7% | 3 |
| 2d | 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | $300M | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,346 | +$39 +2.9% | 3 |
| 58d | egas2 fills | $25M | SellNo91¢ → 78¢ | $6,005 | +$874 +15% | — |
| 89d |  BlackswanDefi | $25M | SellNo80¢ → 78¢ | $1,142 | +$23 +2.0% | — |
| 204d | egas | $25M | SellYes41¢ → 22¢ | $3,789 | +$1,760 +46% | — |
| 206d |  Parz1vaI | $100M | BuyNo85¢ → 98¢ | $1,377 | +$197 +14% | 4 |
| 233d | egas | $25M | BuyYes82¢ → 22¢ | $2,382 | −$1,742 −73% | 5 |
| 247d | qwetdfg | $2B | SellNo99¢ | $1,541 | +$3 +0.2% | — |
| 247d | 25rtrygd | $2B | SellNo99¢ | $1,586 | +$3 +0.2% | — |
| 247d | t6jerst | $2B | SellNo99¢ | $1,527 | +$3 +0.2% | — |
| 247d | qwetdfg | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,547 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | t6jerst | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,527 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | 25rtrygd | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,586 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | fdsg32f1d9 | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,520 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | q3534rd | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,540 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 247d | d4w352qvgtf4ed | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,600 | −$3 −0.2% | 2 |
| 285d | hunter987 | $1B | SellNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,708 | −$20 −1.2% | — |
| 301d | sweetenthepot | $50M | BuyNo68¢ → 94¢ | $2,992 | +$1,149 +38% | 2 |
| 323d | S.T.F. | $2B | BuyNo99¢ | $1,043 | −$6 −0.6% | 2 |
LornaPredicts9 shares
XieGuangKun134 shares
BuD50 shares
Haradwaith16 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 40¢ for $10M means the market gives it about 40%.