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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.50% | 54% | +2 pts | +6 pts | 51¢ · 56¢ (5¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.40% | 33% | −3 pts | +3 pts | 31¢ · 35¢ (4¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.10% | 11% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 8¢ · 13¢ (5¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.00% | 6% | — | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.20% | 14% | +1 pts | −7 pts | 12¢ · 17¢ (5¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.30% | 22% | −6 pts | −8 pts | 20¢ · 23¢ (3¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 3.90% | 4% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 7¢ (5¢) | — | in 75d |
| Below 4.70% | 75% | −5 pts | −1 pts | 74¢ · 76¢ (2¢) | $139 | in 75d |
| Below 4.60% | 73% | +5 pts | +20 pts | 69¢ · 77¢ (8¢) | $20 | in 75d |
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youtube-trader80 shares
balthazar5 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 54¢ for Below 4.50% means the market gives it about 54%.