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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 791d |  nedeshevka | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,137 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 791d | professorx2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,518 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 791d |  MLBksRETARD3 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $25,298 | +$1,179 +4.7% | 21 |
| 791d |  raise4info3 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $19,770 | +$5,051 +26% | 21 |
| 791d |  carp | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,764 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 791d | rblood | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,934 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 791d |  spacebike | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,887 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 791d | aviato | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,496 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 791d |  XiJinPing-4784 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $6,601 | +$1,811 +27% | 21 |
| 791d | Qtyu2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,998 | +$102 +1.1% | 20 |
| 791d |  Erasmus. | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,952 | +$48 +1.2% | 20 |
| 791d | Hhkcg2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,214 | +$107 +1.5% | 20 |
| 792d | anon15654 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $62,463 | +$1,967 +3.1% | 21 |
| 792d | nedeshevka | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 792d |  Figoo572 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,380 | −$71 −1.6% | — |
| 792d | Paimei | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,498 | +$20 +1.3% | 20 |
| 792d |  GamblersNeverLose2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,579 | +$321 +12% | 22 |
| 792d | kingfisher4 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $80,943 | +$14,124 +17% | 22 |
| 792d | wlkr1 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,741 | +$147 +3.1% | 20 |
| 792d |  BlackSky123 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,879 | +$103 +5.5% | 22 |
| 792d | unscented-nerd - 5386 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$158 +5.3% | 21 |
| 792d |  dreamer2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,357 | −$143 −6.1% | — |
| 792d | tsll4 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $11,699 | +$865 +7.4% | 21 |
| 792d | secretemate | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,888 | +$259 +4.4% | 21 |
| 792d |  xoxoxololxo | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,098 | +$97 +8.8% | 22 |
| 793d | kaethol | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$94 +8.8% | 22 |
| 793d |  hp-loveshack | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $1,399 | −$1,399 −100% | 30 |
| 793d |  ;lkhkjgjkb | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$113 −11% | — |
| 793d |  0xloren | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,145 | +$237 +7.5% | 22 |
| 793d |  Mr-Yolos2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $6,850 | +$1,140 +17% | 22 |
| 793d | bama124 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,091 | +$382 +12% | 23 |
| 793d | GamblersNeverLose | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,477 | −$313 −13% | — |
| 793d | Pacpac-7362 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $2,534 | +$839 +33% | 22 |
| 793d |  Harmonicca | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$221 −15% | — |
| 793d | Iverson | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$260 +15% | 22 |
| 794d | bama124 | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $10,092 | −$2,318 −23% | — |
| 794d |  just.some.guy | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | −$600 −18% | — |
| 794d |  ImJustKen | Iran military response by Friday? | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,033 | +$1,033 +100% | — |
| 794d | Figoo57 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,544 | +$726 +20% | 23 |
| 794d |  BustedCungly | Iran military response by Friday? | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,505 | −$376 −25% | — |
| 794d | ElihuDFraudsteal2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $5,094 | +$1,034 +20% | 23 |
| 794d | Miracle007 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,994 | +$380 +19% | 23 |
| 794d | ImJustKen | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyYes15¢ → 0¢ | $2,358 | −$2,358 −100% | 31 |
| 794d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $81,000 | +$19,000 +23% | 23 |
| 794d | FootballFan98 | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | +$380 +23% | 23 |
| 794d | ryzt | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,223 | +$306 +25% | 23 |
| 794d |  TelegramTeleblog | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,009 | +$752 +25% | 23 |
| 794d | AustrianPrinceofGas | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $6,691 | +$1,673 +25% | 23 |
| 794d | spacebike | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$393 +26% | 23 |
| 794d |  WongKimArk3 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $7,929 | +$4,236 +53% | 22 |
| 794d | dreamer | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$500 +25% | 23 |
| 795d | fkarasek2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$1,755 +29% | 24 |
| 795d |  horatio | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$400 +25% | 23 |
| 795d | ElihuDFraudsteal | Iran military response by Friday? | SellYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,332 | +$1,332 +100% | — |
| 795d | MatrixMember3 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | SellYes21¢ → 0¢ | $8,273 | +$8,273 +100% | — |
| 795d | SimonBolivar | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$336 +25% | 23 |
| 795d | notnothing2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $7,570 | +$2,959 +39% | 22 |
| 795d | Harmonicca2 fills | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $3,830 | +$1,170 +31% | 22 |
| 795d |  grugzilla | Iran military response by Friday? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$439 +22% | 23 |
| 795d |  endo2 | Iran military response by Friday? | SellYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,154 | +$1,154 +100% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between August 10 and August 16, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.