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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 656d |  scottilicious2 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,320 | +$978 +7.9% | 4 |
| 662d |  TheKinginYellow2 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,231 | +$124 +2.9% | 4 |
| 665d | TheBoyBilly... | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,457 | −$214 −3.3% | — |
| 666d |  MEPP12 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $34,714 | −$1,386 −4.0% | — |
| 669d |  kickstandhater | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,919 | +$229 +3.3% | 4 |
| 669d | dabdab | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$42 −4.1% | — |
| 674d |  ARudeEgg | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $14,563 | −$607 −4.2% | — |
| 676d | commeowder5 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $10,405 | +$1,254 +12% | 4 |
| 683d |  SPMontreal | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | −$50 −3.8% | — |
| 692d |  GoriIIa11 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $187,224 | +$20,424 +11% | 4 |
| 694d | oculur | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,022 | −$77 −7.5% | — |
| 697d | sbimbg | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,820 | +$180 +6.4% | 4 |
| 699d | amused85 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,640 | +$360 +9.9% | 4 |
| 699d | yuv1410 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,116 | −$255 −8.2% | — |
| 700d | Nonstop-Maggot | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,096 | −$201 −9.6% | — |
| 700d | Nonstop-Maggot | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | +$134 +6.5% | 4 |
| 705d | commeowder | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,768 | −$208 −7.5% | — |
| 707d | Frogy | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $15,479 | +$1,265 +8.2% | 4 |
| 710d | pirimax | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$122 +11% | 4 |
| 711d |  Wloczega3 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,995 | −$875 −18% | — |
| 712d | Optisell | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | +$168 +16% | 4 |
| 714d | MEPP3 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $39,503 | +$8,193 +21% | 4 |
| 714d | denizz3 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $6,857 | −$1,373 −20% | — |
| 717d | puntersthompson | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$265 +18% | 4 |
| 717d |  willis1111 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$208 −19% | — |
| 718d | ARudeEgg2 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $3,881 | +$710 +18% | 4 |
| 720d | Wloczega3 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $8,015 | +$1,485 +19% | 4 |
| 721d | comon119 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,551 | −$1,551 −100% | 7 |
| 722d | Parcelino | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$260 +15% | 4 |
| 723d | souschef | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,740 | +$260 +15% | 4 |
| 728d |  Eridpnc | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | −$225 −18% | — |
| 729d |  ANudeEgg | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,506 | −$795 −18% | — |
| 730d | denizz | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,651 | +$821 +18% | 4 |
| 733d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,538 | −$677 −19% | — |
| 739d |  RememberAmalek | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,185 | −$1,185 −100% | 5 |
| 740d | ANudeEgg | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,921 | +$398 +14% | 4 |
| 743d | M1R0 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $8,900 | +$1,100 +12% | 4 |
| 745d | willis1111 | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$157 +13% | 4 |
| 745d | Straight-Split | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | −$183 −16% | — |
| 747d | Gdub | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,944 | +$256 +8.7% | 4 |
| 749d |  VibesGreaterRules | Iran Nuke in 2024? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,591 | −$138 −8.7% | — |
| 753d |  ImJustKen | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $12,321 | +$1,391 +11% | 4 |
| 768d | BeN | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$230 +16% | 4 |
| 780d |  Car | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,035 | +$199 +19% | 4 |
| 783d | truce | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyYes17¢ → 0¢ | $1,373 | −$1,373 −100% | 6 |
| 789d |  RewardsPeasant | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,462 | +$278 +19% | 4 |
| 794d |  ValKC | Iran Nuke in 2024? | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,033 | +$182 +18% | 4 |
PolyMarker494 shares
Shasharh214 shares
martingail3 shares
kentma1 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.