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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +56 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 491d | DawnOfYemen | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,424 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | rapeygroyper | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,900 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | markdubmogulmoves | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,148 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | pruthvikhorate | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | EasyMoneySniper1 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | Avantgard | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $4,795 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 491d | Blackwhite11 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,069 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 491d |  Anjun2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,852 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d | applesandbananas | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,246 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 491d | Trader2936 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $8,092 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 491d |  verysensitive | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,791 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 491d |  tourists | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $11,372 | −$31 −0.3% | — |
| 491d | AugsburgFClover | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,290 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 491d | 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerd | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,977 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 491d | fuiran | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,268 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 491d | JamesGorson2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $4,197 | −$3,988 −95% | — |
| 491d | Trendo2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | −$3,933 −79% | — |
| 491d | f776e5e7fAd447406480fd0b44b2aDc83 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,304 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 491d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $12,829 | −$45 −0.4% | — |
| 491d | Xdisco | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,205 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 491d |  Ra975121579 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,817 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 491d |  aenews2 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,191 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 491d |  Gutsu | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,268 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 491d |  BenjaminLinus | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,253 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 491d | marinerhaz | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $6,876 | −$30 −0.4% | — |
| 491d | Y6y-090 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes100¢ | $2,383 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 491d | Lolypop71 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes100¢ | $1,112 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 491d |  duderr | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,034 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 491d | Uncommon-PoetryNew account | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes>99¢ | $5,072 | −$21 −0.4% | — |
| 491d |  Roflan-ludoman | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,007 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 491d | sd2333 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | −$12 −0.6% | — |
| 491d |  RavenBaxter | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,482 | −$21 −0.6% | — |
| 491d |  Schwarzerfalke | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,627 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 491d | Elclassico121 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,457 | −$19 −1.3% | — |
| 491d | MTPLF | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,088 | −$27 −1.3% | — |
| 491d |  wokql | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,241 | +$82 +1.3% | 20 |
| 491d | xtrisl33t | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | −$35 −2.3% | — |
| 491d | runningBTC | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,702 | −$189 −4.0% | — |
| 491d |  JanetMoulin | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,792 | −$194 −4.1% | — |
| 491d | Isilidur1 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $9,746 | −$332 −3.4% | — |
| 491d |  Dropper3 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $4,450 | +$4,014 +90% | 20 |
| 491d |  Funfzig5 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $14,842 | +$7,309 +49% | 20 |
| 491d | denizz5 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellNo29¢ → 0¢ | $18,805 | +$18,805 +100% | — |
| 491d | cashy3 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $5,911 | +$9,229 +156% | 24 |
| 491d | tourists4 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $7,632 | +$4,751 +62% | 20 |
| 491d | 1mperator17 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,004 | +$987 +49% | 20 |
| 491d |  ciro22 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $5,958 | +$5,958 +100% | — |
| 491d |  Euan2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $5,337 | +$3,956 +74% | 20 |
| 491d |  Car4 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $7,690 | +$6,621 +86% | 20 |
| 491d | FC9254 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $10,468 | +$7,739 +74% | 20 |
| 491d | ZZagreus | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$981 +76% | 20 |
| 491d |  Dumbeldor2003 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | −$1,104 −98% | — |
| 491d |  debased4 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $6,218 | +$6,019 +97% | 20 |
| 491d |  tunatyler | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $3,060 | +$3,060 +100% | — |
| 491d |  BlessedSunshine888 | Israel military action against Iran before July? | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,087 | +$1,087 +100% | — |
| 491d |  0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $4,979 | −$4,979 −100% | 20 |
| 491d |  user-213094o2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyYes49¢ → 100¢ | $3,667 | +$3,758 +102% | 20 |
| 491d | DontTrustFakeMedia2 fills | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $2,242 | −$2,242 −100% | 20 |
| 491d | ageofandy | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyNo52¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 20 |
| 491d | Muskadelic | Israel military action against Iran before July? | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $1,045 | −$1,045 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.
